680
FXUS64 KAMA 082325
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
625 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
A MOSTLY CALM AND QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING. JUST HOW WIDESPREAD OR EVEN IF FOG WILL DEVELOP
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST,
NOT THE TYPICAL EASTERLY WIND DIRECTION THAT WOULD SUPPORT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE APPEARS TO HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND
5 MPH AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR THE WINDS TO HAVE AN EASTERLY
COMPONENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IS LOW (20 PERCENT OR
LESS) BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY PATCHY
FOG MENTIONS WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY.
MUSCHA
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
- RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW AVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
- CHANCES OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY MAY
CAUSE DIFFICULT DRIVING CONDITIONS.
- A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE WHERE
SEEING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF TWO MAIN CLUSTER OF STORMS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. THESE STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, BUT
LACK THE NECESSARY SUPPORT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.
REGARDLESS, THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO WANE AS WE MOVE FURTHER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MODELS EXPECT A RIDGE TO BEGIN
BUILDING IN. WHILE THIS RIDGE WILL ACT AS OUR DRIVING FORCE FOR
DRIER WEATHER, THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES JUMPING A FULL TEN DEGREES BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S FOR THURSDAY.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO TREND FOR THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WEATHER
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY
WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS
LOOK TO SEE A LEE-SIDE LOW DEVELOPMENT JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. WHILE THIS PLACEMENT DOES NOT
BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, IT DOES FORCE OUR TYPICAL SET UP
FOR DOWN SLOPING WINDS AS WELL AS TIGHTEN OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT AT
THE SURFACE. THESE TWO FACTOR HAVE LEAD TO THE EXPECTATION OF
BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THAT
AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHWEST LOOKING TO SEE THE STRONGEST OF THESE
WINDS. UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS SET UP WOULD ALSO PROMPT
CONCERNS FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, BUT PRESENT MODEL
AGREEMENT EXPECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO STAY AROUND
30% FOR THE DAY. ADD THESE DECENT VALUES TO REPORTS OF VERY GREEN
FUELS ACROSS THE MOST OF THE PANHANDLES, AND FIRE STARTS WILL BE
HARDER TO COME BY FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR SUNDAY, CONCERNS ARE
PRESENT THAT A SIMILAR BUT DRIER SCENARIO MAY PLAY OUT FOR THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE STEADFAST OF
A NEW TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM CANADA AND FORCING THE LEE-SIDE LOW
EAST. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAKER
FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT FADES.
REGARDLESS, MOST MODELS DO EXPECTED A PORTION OF A COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A SECONDARY
TROUGH SOMETIME NEXT MONDAY. THIS PASSAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION RETURN WITH A 15 TO 25% CHANCE SEEN
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LOOK TO
FALL WITH THIS PASSAGE AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 70S
MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS TO IMPACT THE SITES TONIGHT SO
HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTIONS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT
OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THIS TAF CYCLE AND GUSTS MAY BE AS
HIGH AS 25 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS TOMORROW.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05
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