474
FXUS64 KAMA 092330
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
630 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
- DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE 80S AS EARLY AS TODAY.
- BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, WITH CHANCES OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
LOW.
- A NEW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AS
WELL AS COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY
BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER TO THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL
LOOK TO HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WEATHER RELATIVELY QUIET
TODAY. WINDS DO LOOK TO START INCREASING AS WE MOVE INTO FRIDAY AS
MOST CAMS SEE A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW BEGIN TO FORM ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, BUT SURFACE WINDS SHOULD STAY AROUND 15 TO
20 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE ON A WARMING TREND FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY LOOK TO PUSH INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. MEANWHILE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY LOOK TO SIT
CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO TREND FOR THE BUILDING OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PANHANDLES, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP WEATHER
DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STAY
WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 80S. HOWEVER, MOST MODELS
LOOK TO SEE A LEE-SIDE LOW CONTINUE TO BUILD JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT RANGE SATURDAY. WHILE THIS PLACEMENT
DOES NOT BRING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION, IT DOES FORCE OUR
TYPICAL SET UP FOR DOWN SLOPING WINDS AS WELL AS TIGHTEN OUR
PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE. THESE TWO FACTOR HAVE LEAD TO
THE EXPECTATION OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS BEING SEEN ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THAT AFTERNOON WITH THE NORTHWEST LOOKING TO SEE THE
STRONGEST OF THESE WINDS. HOWEVER, PRESENT TRENDS ON RECENT MODEL
RUNS HAVE SEEN THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT THAT WAS INITIALLY THERE
COME IN A LOT WEAKER. THE LACK OF THIS SUPPORT WILL KEEP WINDS
FROM GETTING TOO STRONG OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY, THOUGH A FEW
GUST PEAKING AROUND 40 MPH ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
UNDER NORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES, THIS SET UP WOULD ALSO PROMPT CONCERNS
FOR ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER, BUT PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT
EXPECTS MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO STAY AROUND 30% FOR
THE DAY. ADD THESE DECENT VALUES TO REPORTS OF VERY GREEN FUELS
ACROSS THE MOST OF THE PANHANDLES, AND FIRE STARTS WILL BE HARDER
TO COME BY FOR THE AFTERNOON. AS FOR SUNDAY, CONCERNS ARE PRESENT
THAT A SIMILAR BUT DRIER SCENARIO MAY PLAY OUT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, LATEST MODELS RUNS HAVE BEEN MORE STEADFAST OF A NEW
TROUGH PUSHING IN FROM CANADA AND FORCING THE LEE-SIDE LOW EAST.
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, THEN WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE WEAKER FOR
THE AFTERNOON AS THE EXPECTED PRESSURE GRADIENT FADES. REGARDLESS,
MOST MODELS DO EXPECTED A PORTION OF A COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES WITH THE MOVEMENT OF A SECONDARY TROUGH SOMETIME
NEXT MONDAY. THIS PASSAGE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION RETURN WITH A 15 TO 30% CHANCE PRESENT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LOOK TO FALL
WITH THIS PASSAGE AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN DROP INTO THE 70S MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 619 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLAY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE KEY FEATURES
OF THIS FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS WITH
SLIGHT VARIANCE IN DIRECTION. SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY
BREEZY FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE DECREASING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE ONCE MORE AND FLOW PREDOMINANTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
WINDS HAVE A CHANCE TO FLOW FROM DUE SOUTH INTERMITTENTLY.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...55
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