431
FXUS64 KAMA 131132
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IN
MULTIPLE ROUNDS STRETCHING FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SET TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING AND NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN ITS WAKE. THE
COLD FRONT HAS AIDED IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND NOW AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM THAT IS CURRENTLY NEAR MIAMI/CANADIAN. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES AT THIS TIME
WITH THE COOLER AIR LAGGING SLIGHTLY BEHIND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH INTO THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A SUBTLE/WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP FROM WEST TEXAS. THIS, ALONG WITH
FAVORABLE THETA-E ADVECTION, SHOULD FORCE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND MOVE NORTH. MEANWHILE, OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL END UP IN A SOUTHWEST-
NORTHEAST ORIENTATION BY 7 AM MONDAY, FROM THE SOUTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE TO THE NE TEXAS PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, SOLUTIONS DIVERGE
AFTERWARDS REGARDING HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ADDITIONAL PROGRESSION
THERE WILL BE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
REGARDLESS, THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS AND CAMS ALL INDICATE THAT
THE FRONT WILL STALL IF NOT RETREAT SOME IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXPECTING SOME MID-LEVEL FORCING TO ARRIVE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WELL AS A SURGE OF HIGHER 700MB THETA-E VALUES, POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT SHOWERS CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE
MOST LIKELY TO STAY BETWEEN 0.05" AND 0.30" WITH AROUND A 30-40%
CHANCE FOR TOTALS TO EXCEED 0.30" WHICH IS FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. IF THERE ARE THUNDERSTORMS AND/OR
TRAINING BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, AS SEVERAL CAMS SUGGEST AS
A POSSIBILITY, CANNOT RULE OUT A LOCALIZED TOTAL OF AROUND 1".
RAIN WILL MOST LIKELY COME TO AN END BY THE EVENING HOURS AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 50S FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2025
A LARGE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN US TO START THE LONG-
TERM PERIOD WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN US THROUGH THE
MIDWEST. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY, AND A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN IN EASTERN COLORADO
RESULTING IN A STEEPENING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. ANTICIPATING 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RE-STRENGTHENING TO 15-25 MPH
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. NOT EXPECTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS GIVEN
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30-45%
RANGE ON BOTH DAYS.
A COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. CEILINGS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR, BUT MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP LATE IN THIS TAF
PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST INITIALLY BUT WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05
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