702
FXUS64 KAMA 131811
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
111 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PANHANDLES IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE SET TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
AS ANTICIPATED, THE MAJORITY OF PRECIPITATION HAS INITIALLY BEEN
KEPT ACROSS THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
LOCATIONS RECEIVING HIGHER TOTALS OF A FEW TENTHS. ALSO AS
ANTICIPATED, THE COLD FRONT HAS USHERED IN QUITE A STOUT DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS TO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES (30S & 40S DEW PTS), WHICH
WILL BE QUITE DIFFICULT TO OVERCOME TILL LATER IN THE EVENING-
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN BETTER SYNOPTIC SUPPORT ARRIVES.
CONSEQUENTLY, THERE IS INCREASING LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ARRIVAL
TIMING OF THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TO RECEIVE THE MAIN ROUNDS
OF RAIN FORECAST TO UNFOLD LATER, CONTRARY TO PREVIOUS
EXPECTATIONS.
THE CURRENT SCENARIO UNFOLDING ACTUALLY FAVORS THE NORTHWEST
PANHANDLES TO SEE SOME OF THE BEST RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK AND STRONG MID-LEVEL THETA-E
ADVECTION ARRIVE (A POTENTIAL SCENARIO DEPICTED BY SOME MODELS AND
MENTIONED IN DISCUSSIONS A COUPLE DAYS AGO). THIS REGION WAS
PREVIOUSLY FAVORED TO RECEIVE SOME OF THE LIGHTEST RAIN TOTALS,
BUT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOURCES OF LIFT STAYING SITUATED ACROSS
THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERN CWA, SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD EVEN LINGER
LATER INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY A FEW CAMS. AS
PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TO, THAT WOULD LEAVE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA (INCLUDING AMARILLO) WITH FAR MORE SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY LIGHTER RAIN, SANDWICHED BETWEEN AREAS
MORE MODERATE WIDESPREAD RAIN. THAT DOESN'T MEAN PRECIP CHANCES
ARE COMPLETELY NEGATED FOR THESE AREAS THOUGH. IN FACT, WITH THE
STRONG INFLUX OF MOISTURE SET TO FILTER IN LATER TODAY-TONIGHT, IT
WOULD BE SURPRISING NOT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR A WEAK STORM POP
UP. NEW TRENDS SIMPLY SUGGEST THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MORE
SPOTTY HERE, WITH HIGHER RAIN ACCUMULATIONS HARDER TO COME BY
OUTSIDE OF THE MAIN PRECIP SHIELDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES.
DRY AIR GRADUALLY FILTERS IN TUESDAY NIGHT IN TO WEDNESDAY, SHUTTING
OFF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WARMING 850MB
TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S TOMORROW, WITH LOWS IN THE
50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
WE HOPE YOU LIKE THE PANHANDLE BREEZE BECAUSE IT HAS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RETURNING WED AND THU AFTERNOONS. LATEST GLOBAL
MODEL TRENDS HAVE MAINTAINED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION
MID TO LATE WEEK, AS AN AREA OF LARGE-SCALE RIDGING IS NOW
FAVORED TO REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP
SPUR LEE CYCLOGENESIS, PLACING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE PLAINS. EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 35 MPH AS A RESULT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROGGED TO SETTLE IN
THE 70S AND 80S THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.
LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SHOW A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
TRAVERSING OVER THE PANHANDLES BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY THAT TIME, KEEPING POPS BELOW
15% EACH DAY OF THE LONG TERM.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2025
LOW CLOUD DECKS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD,
RANGING FROM VFR TO IFR AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE TERMINALS MAINLY LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY MORNING. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
EXIST NEAR KDHT AND KGUY DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH MORE HIT OR
MISS ACTIVITY NEAR KAMA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AT 4-15 KTS.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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