455
FXUS64 KAMA 141131
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 10 AM.
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS STRETCHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS SET TO RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
DENSE FOG IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WITH OBSERVED VISIBILITY DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS
FOR SOME AREAS. THE FOG WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT AS WINDS SHIFT TO
OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THE SUN AIDS IN BURNING OFF THE FOG BY MID
MORNING. THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM,
BUT MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED SOONER AS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SUBTLE SIGNS OF VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENT ALREADY THIS
MORNING. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AT THIS
TIME WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL EXPECTED FROM THEM. ADDITIONAL
RAIN SHOWERS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
MAY MOVE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PANHANDLES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE DAY. POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SHOWERS, PERHAPS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS, WILL MOST LIKELY
BE ONGOING IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TO START TUESDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE IN THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE
PRESENT AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID-MORNING HOURS. CAMS
CONTINUE TO SIGNAL THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO LAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES, POSSIBLY AS BANDS.
LATEST GUIDANCE BECOMING MORE CONFIDENT REGARDING THIS ACTIVITY
OCCURRING AND RESULTING IN SOME MORE DECENT RAINFALL TOTALS; THE
HREF GIVES AROUND A 30-50% CHANCE FOR RAIN TOTALS TO EXCEED 1"
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE THE RAIN BAND(S)
ARE MORE FAVORED TO SET UP WITH THE REASONABLE WORST CASE (90TH
PERCENTILE) BEING AROUND 1.3" TO 1.6". RAIN SHOULD COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE AREA BY TUESDAY EVENING AS CLOUDS CLEAR FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE WESTERN US WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN EASTERN
COLORADO. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A RESULT AND
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO 15-25 MPH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WITH AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 35 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY, AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE ASSOCIATED JET STREAK
WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN SE COLORADO. 15-25
MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A 30-60% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. A COLD
FRONT IS FAVORED TO MOVE IN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH BRINGS SOME
COOLER AIR IN FOR FRIDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS AS WELL AS THEIR ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE THAT THE
OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES AS ANOTHER TROUGH IS
FAVORED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
LIFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT KDHT AND KGUY DUE TO LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY. THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL LAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE CLEARING OUT BEFORE 18Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG CLEAR OUT.
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY FOR KDHT BUT NO
AVIATION IMPACTS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KTS LATER TODAY BEFORE
DECREASING DOWN TO 10 KTS OR LESS TOWARDS THE LATER HALF OF THIS
TAF CYCLE.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ004-005-
009-010.
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...05
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