220
FXUS64 KAMA 141815
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
- SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET TO
RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AT 700MB-500MB CONTINUE TO FAVOR
SHOWER AND ISOLATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN TRAINING TO AN EXTENT FROM EASTERN NM INTO THE SOUTHWEST
PANHANDLES, AND NOW EXTENDS UP TO THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE. MOST
LOCATIONS ARE ONLY REPORTING A FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH WITH THIS
ACTIVITY, BUT SOME OF THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
PRODUCE POCKETS OVER 0.50". THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE DAY AS DRY AIR STARTS TO IMPINGE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THE NORTHWEST ZONES MAY SEE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO THE
EVENING BASED ON THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF THIS DRY AIR. IN ANY
CASE, ALL AREAS SHOULD START TO DRY OUT GOING INTO TOMORROW
MORNING WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REACH THE LOW 80S TOMORROW AFTERNOON (NBM 50TH PERCENTILE RIGHT AT
80 FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES) WITH A NOTABLE
UPTICK IN SOUTHWEST WINDS AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY
WITH FAIRLY STOUT TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER UT. GUSTS OVER 35 MPH
ARE MOST FAVORED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL ZONES
WHERE SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS WILL BE THE GREATEST.
WARD
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL LIFT OUT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. SURFACE LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE FRONT RANGE
INTO THE RATON MESA REGION WILL HELP DRIVE PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS
THE AREA AND SUPPORT EVEN STRONGER WINDS ON THURSDAY. CURRENT
NBM/ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES ARE SHOWING 10% TO 20% CHANCE FOR 45MPH
OR GREATER WIND GUSTS FOR ASOS SITES THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GOOD
NEWS IN THAT SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AT A MINIMUM (BUT WITH 30-60 DAY RAINFALL
DEFICITSCLIMBING IN SOME AREAS, FIRE STARTS ARE BECOMING MORE OF
AN ISSUE ON WINDY AND EVEN MARGINALLY DRY DAYS). WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING BACK OVER THE AREA THURSDAY,
MODELS ARE STARTING TO HINT AT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OR PERHAPS
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM WITH SOME JET DYNAMICS IN PLAY. KEPT NBM POPS
FOR NOW, WHICH KEEPS MOST AREAS AROUND 10 TO 20% FOR 0.01" THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD ARRIVE AT SOME POINT FRIDAY, WITH
MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING PROGGED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT (LOW TO
MID 40S FOR SOME AREAS). THE OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS MORE
PROGRESSIVE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD
FRONTS, MORE WIND, AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
WARD
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT TUE OCT 14 2025
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WILL BE WITH SHOWER AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WHICH WILL FAVOR KDHT AND KGUY
AFTER 19Z (KAMA MORE SO BEFORE 19Z). SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AND
LIGHTNING MAY ACCOMPANY ANY OF THE STRONGER CELLS, BUT MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW IMPACT. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD
LARGELY COME TO AN END THIS EVENING, BUT THE TREND HAS BEEN TO
LINGER SHOWERS LONGER INTO THE EVENING FOR THE NORTHWEST NEAR
KDHT AND KGUY. WINDS SHOULD STAY SOUTHERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
WARD
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...07
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