137
FXUS64 KAMA 160028
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
728 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
-SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE WEST ON THURSDAY, THEN FAR
EAST ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SITTING OVER CA/NV. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS CURRENTLY
PRESENT OVER THE FA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER TX INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. A STREAM OF ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CAN BE VIEWED ON THE GOES IMAGERY FLOWING NORTH INTO NEW
MEXICO AT THIS TIME. TODAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE KEPT
WEST OF THE FA. TOMORROW, THIS WILL CHANGE WITH THE MOISTURE
SHIFTING EAST OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
GOING INTO TOMORROW THE AFOREMENTIONED MID TO UPPER CLOSED LOW IS
PROGGED TO SHOOT NORTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. AS THIS HAPPENS BOTH
THE MID AND LOWER LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL STEEPEN ALLOWING
AN H5 JET TO PICK UP TO AROUND 70 TO 80S KTS OVER PARTS OF NM, CO,
AND NE. SOME HIGHER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT AROUND 40 TO 50 KTS AT H5
MAY BLEED OVER INTO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
HOWEVER, INCREASED CLOUD COVER FROM THAT AFOREMENTIONED MOISTURE
STREAM SHIFTING EAST INTO THE PANHANDLES SHOULD HELP IN REDUCING
THE AMOUNT OF MIXING OF THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE. H850 WINDS ARE
PROGGED TO JUMP UP TO AROUND 40 KTS, ALTHOUGH, NOT UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET, AND WILL HOPEFULLY NOT BE MIXING TO THE SURFACE AT THAT
TIME. GUIDANCE IS KEEPING MUCH OF THE HIGHER WINDS OUT OF THE
AREA, SO EXPECTING TO SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, GUSTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 40 MPH FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED FROM YESTERDAY. YESTERDAY NBM
PROBABILITIES FOR WINDS EXCEEDING 40 MPH WERE MUCH HIGHER. NOW
THOSE PROBS THAT WERE AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT ARE NOW ONLY AROUND
10 PERCENT TO MAYBE 20 PERCENT.
BACK TO THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE COMBINED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE H5 JET BRING ABOUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS FOR THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW, WITH
POPS AROUND 10 TO 20 PERCENT FOR MEASURABLE RAIN AS INSTABILITY WILL
BE LACKING AS WELL AS THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL LIFTING MECHANISMS
SUCH AS PVA.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THU NIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING. DRY AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE
TDS IN THE 40S TO 50S DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE
WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES GOING INTO SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING.
SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AT THIS TIME AS WELL WITH WINDS
FALLING OFF A BIT. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES TO DROP INTO THE 40S WITH A LOW IN THE 50S FOR
THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PANHANDLES COME FRIDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AT THE END OF THE SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION, IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN FA ON FRIDAY. THESE UPSLOPING WINDS WILL HELP HOLD
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES FRI AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
REST OF THE PANHANDLES GET CLOSER TO THE LOWER 80S. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER ON FRI AS WELL. WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA WILL ALSO SEE SOME DRIER SURFACE MOISTURE AS RH VALUES FALL
TO 20 PERCENT OR BELOW WITH THE LOWER TDS MOVING IN.
FRIDAY NIGHT, A PORTION OF THE REMAINING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SITTING
OFF TO THE WEST IS PROGGED TO SKIRT ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THIS WILL BRING SOME LOW PROBS FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY STILL
BE PRESENT IF IT HASN'T BEEN PUSHED COMPLETELY OFF TO THE EAST.
THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME CAA BEHIND A COLD FRONT SAT.
DURING THE DAY TEMPS MAY ONLY BE HELD BACK BY SOME NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH HIGHS STILL REACHING THE 70S. OVERNIGHT, THOUGH CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND TEMPERATURES
TO REALLY DROP OFF, MAKING THE COLD FRONT MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE.
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE A FROST ADVISORY MAY POTENTIALLY
BE NEEDED WITH A 20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO BELOW 36 DEGREES.
BEYOND SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO STAY MOSTLY MILD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY. CONDITIONS ARE PROGGED TO BE MOSTLY
DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SEPARATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE
THE FURTHER OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 725 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
DRY WEATHER REMAINS PRESENT OVER THE PANHANDLES TODAY WITH ALL
TERMINALS LOOKING TO STAY AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. ONE THING THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR TO BE PRESENT AT KGUY AND KDHT
LATER TONIGHT THANKS TO A LOW-LEVEL JET HOLDING OVER THE AREA.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT THESE WINDS WILL BE VERY
IMPACTFUL, SO HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF CURRENT PACKAGE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...11
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