818
FXUS64 KAMA 160526
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1226 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- A NEW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DRY AIR
MASS THAT WILL SEE HIGHS HOLD IN THE 60S TO 70S CLEAR INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT EXPECTS THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE PRESENT DRY LAYER OVER THE
PANHANDLES. AS THIS LAYER BREAKS DOWN, CAMS EXPECT MOISTURE TO
FILL IN AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPACT WISE MOST
CAMS HAVE SEEN CAPE VALUES ON THE LOWER END WITH MUCAPE STAYING
AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG . HOWEVER, MOST OF THE CAMS ARE ALSO
SEEING BULK WIND SHEAR HOLD AROUND 30KT, WHICH COULD HELP KEEP A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR IT TO INTENSIFY INTO
A SEVERE STORM. ANOTHER POINT OF INTERESTING TO WATCH IS THAT OUR
DCAPE IS STAYING ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH MOST MODEL SOUNDING SEEING A
DECENT DRY LAYER STILL HOLDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS COULD SUPPORT
US SEEING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH A STORM
INTENSIFY WITH EVENING A BASIC THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF NEARING 60
MPH. REGARDLESS, A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL SEE CHANCES OF STORMS PUSH FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES THAT EVENING HOLDING IN OUR EASTERN MOST STACK OF
COUNTIES AT AROUND 10 TO 20%. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S TODAY SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MID TO LOW 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LOOK TO PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MOST MODELS EXPECTING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO SNEAK
INTO THE PANHANDLES THANKS TO ANOTHER TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE PRESENT ONE. THIS ACT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING
INTO THE LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WHAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCH IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 30 TO LOW 40S WITH ONLY A 10% CHANCE OR
LESS FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST TO REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AS FOR
MONDAY, A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES GIVE US A QUICK
TEMPERATURE SWING BACK INTO THE 80S, BUT MODELS EXPECT A NEW
TROUGH TO BRUSH OUR NORTH AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND
COOLER AIR. THIS AIR MASS WILL LOOK TO DROP TEMPERATURE INTO 60S
TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 70S CLEAR INTO THURSDAY WITH MOST MODELS SEEING FLOW
STAYING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME LLWS IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY AT KDHT OR KGUY, BUT OPTED TO NOT
INCLUDE IT IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH
GUSTS INCREASING UP TO 30 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL
SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
LATE IN THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO THE SITES IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05
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