527
FXUS64 KAMA 161134
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
634 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
- A NEW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
- DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL
FOR LOWS TO DROP INTO THE MID 30S SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
- A BRIEF WARM UP MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COOL DRY AIR
MASS THAT WILL SEE HIGHS HOLD IN THE 60S TO 70S CLEAR INTO
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
ANOTHER WARM AND BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH ACROSS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. STILL CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG, WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. BASED ON THE LATEST HI-RES MODEL
OUTPUT, HAVE UPDATED FORECAST POPS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT EXPECTS THE CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN THE PRESENT DRY LAYER OVER THE
PANHANDLES. AS THIS LAYER BREAKS DOWN, CAMS EXPECT MOISTURE TO
FILL IN AND BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IMPACT WISE MOST
CAMS HAVE SEEN CAPE VALUES ON THE LOWER END WITH MUCAPE STAYING
AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG . HOWEVER, MOST OF THE CAMS ARE ALSO
SEEING BULK WIND SHEAR HOLD AROUND 30KT, WHICH COULD HELP KEEP A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH FOR IT TO INTENSIFY INTO
A SEVERE STORM. ANOTHER POINT OF INTERESTING TO WATCH IS THAT OUR
DCAPE IS STAYING ABOVE 1000 J/KG WITH MOST MODEL SOUNDING SEEING A
DECENT DRY LAYER STILL HOLDING AT THE SURFACE. THIS COULD SUPPORT
US SEEING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH A STORM
INTENSIFY WITH EVENING A BASIC THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF NEARING 60
MPH. REGARDLESS, A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
BEHIND A COLD FRONT MOVING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
FRONT WILL SEE CHANCES OF STORMS PUSH FURTHER EAST FOR FRIDAY WITH
BEST CHANCES THAT EVENING HOLDING IN OUR EASTERN MOST STACK OF
COUNTIES AT AROUND 10 TO 20%. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, LOOK FOR HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S TODAY SLOWLY TRANSITION TO MID TO LOW 70S BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT WED OCT 15 2025
DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL LOOK TO PREVAIL MOVING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MOST MODELS EXPECTING A SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO SNEAK
INTO THE PANHANDLES THANKS TO ANOTHER TROUGH QUICKLY PUSHING IN
BEHIND THE PRESENT ONE. THIS ACT WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
ON THE COOLER SIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MOST LOCATIONS DIPPING
INTO THE LOW 70S BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER, WHAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCH IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME MOST MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STAY IN THE MID 30 TO LOW 40S WITH ONLY A 10% CHANCE OR
LESS FOR THE FAR NORTHWEST TO REACH FREEZING TEMPERATURES. AS FOR
MONDAY, A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DOES GIVE US A QUICK
TEMPERATURE SWING BACK INTO THE 80S, BUT MODELS EXPECT A NEW
TROUGH TO BRUSH OUR NORTH AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF DRY AND
COOLER AIR. THIS AIR MASS WILL LOOK TO DROP TEMPERATURE INTO 60S
TO LOW 70S ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD IN THE 70S CLEAR INTO THURSDAY WITH MOST MODELS SEEING FLOW
STAYING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS STARTING AROUND 00Z WITH
KDHT HAVING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE FOR STORMS TO IMPACT THE
TERMINAL. KGUY AND KAMA ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL, BUT THE ODDS ARE
MUCH LOWER AT THIS TIME. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS WILL
MOSTLY REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KTS. WINDS
WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AT KDHT AND KGUY BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...05
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