657
FXUS64 KAMA 170519
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1219 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
-RESIDUAL SHOWER OR STORM (~20% CHANCE) LATER TODAY FOR THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
-WATCHING FOR FROST POTENTIAL LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NW PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
CURRENT 04-05Z OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS THE MAIN SFC
DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT CONTINUING TO MIX EAST INTO EASTERN NM. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MIX INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES
THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE, AND SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE BEFORE SUNRISE. GUSTY
WINDS AND VIVID LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS.
GOING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY, AS THE MAIN LONGWAVE H500 POSITIVE
TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND INTO NEW MEXICO, OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS, A LARGE
DOMAIN OF NEGATIVE ABS VORTICITY WILL TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES,
WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY. BY THE
EVENING HOURS, AS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS ENTERS THE PANHANDLES, THE
FAR EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES MAY HAVE ENOUGH BROAD LIFT
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WHERE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN (ABOUT A 20-30% CHANCE). LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE ROBUST THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.
H500 NW FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH, ALONG WITH SFC NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S IN
THE NW PANHANDLES TO LOWER 80S IN THE SE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BY
TOMORROW NIGHT, A SURFACE HIGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES. AS H850 CAA DROPS H850 TEMPS TO 7C-9C BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE
RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT WINDS, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD
DROP VERY QUICKLY. OBSERVING THE LATEST NAM/RAP/NBM TRENDS, AREAS
IN THE NW PANHANDLES COULD EASILY DROP INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE WHERE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT
WINDS MAY RESULT IN PATCHY FROST DEVELOPING BY SUNDAY MORNING.
WILL WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY TO SEE IF THESE CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS
A LARGER DOMAIN.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. H500 ZONAL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, WITH MUCH WEAKER FLOW
AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEK WILL BE A BIT OF A ROLLER
COASTER WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WE ARE CLOSELY MONITORING SOME VCTS CONDITIONS FOR KGUY
FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE TAF PERIOD AS TS ACTIVITY SHOULD
QUICKLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE TAF SITE PAST 07Z. WINDS OVERALL
WILL BE AROUND THE DIAL AT 5-10 KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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