331
FXUS64 KAMA 171702
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1202 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
-THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE EASTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
-WATCHING FOR FROST POTENTIAL INTO SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE NW PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
TODAY INTO SUNDAY, THE FOCUS IS ON A POSITIVELY TILTED MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO SWING INTO AND THROUGH THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY RUNNING FROM
SOUTHERN CA NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN CO. BASED ON CURRENT GOES
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOTS OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IS IN PLACE
OVER THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THE MAJORITY OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL BE REMAINING DRY THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME MINOR H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION IN THE FAR EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. POPS
HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 TO 30 PERCENT, BUT THEN DROPPED TO 10 TO 20
PERCENT LAST NIGHT, NOW THE NBM IS GIVING LESS THAN 10 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR ANY MEASURABLE RAIN IN THE SOUTHEASTERN FA TONIGHT.
HAVE KEPT MENTIONABLE 10 POPS FOR THIS AREA BUT THE MOISTURE MAY
JUST BE TOO INADEQUATE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN. AREAS FURTHER EAST AND
SOUTH OUTSIDE OF THE FA WILL HAVE BETTER CHANCES TO SEE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
TOMORROW MORNING, AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO THE
PANHANDLES, MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERY ACTIVITY IN THE FAR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE ABILITY FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO SURGE FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND MEET WITH THE DYNAMICS
FROM THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. 20 TO 30 POPS WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS
MAINLY DONLEY AND COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. BY MORNING, TEMPERATURES
IN THE NORTHWEST ARE PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE LOW 40S WHILE
CENTRAL AREAS SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50. THE SOUTHEAST WERE
SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE, ARE PROGGED TO SEE LOWS IN LOW TO MID
50S.
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING SLIGHTLY BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
RELAX AS THE POST FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH FILLS INTO THE PANHANDLES.
THIS WILL LET WINDS DROP OFF AND BECOME CALM AND VARIABLE. REALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO HELP TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 30S IN THE NORTHWEST AND 40S TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL THAT SOME AREAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
MAY SEE TEMPS DROP BELOW 36 IF THE WINDS ARE LIGHT ENOUGH. THIS MAY
POSE A THREAT FOR FROST SUNDAY MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE
WINDS DROP THIS FROST POTENTIAL MAY EVEN BLEED INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
TX PANHANDLE, BUT MAINLY EXPECTED FOR AREAS AROUND DALHART
NORTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
FOR SUNDAY, THE EFFECTS OF COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SHORTLIVED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OUT QUICKLY. BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA WARMING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH CLEAR SKIES. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING IS PROGGED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA WITH MONDAY BEING
EVEN WARMER IN THE 80S, AT LEAST FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE. MODELS ARE BRINING IN A COLD FRONT MUCH EARLIER ON
MONDAY NOW, BUT WITH LESS OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT. THEREFORE, THE
WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED TO BE AS BREEZY AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
BEHIND THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY H85 TEMPERATURES ARE
PROGGED TO FALL NEAR 9 TO 10 DEGREES C LEADING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND 70 FOR TUE. MOSTLY BENIGN WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM
CONTINUES INTO WED AND THU AS WELL WITH A SLIGHT WARM UP WED WITH
HIGHS NEAR 80 BEFORE RETURNING CLOSER TO 70 ONCE AGAIN ON THU.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
A FAIRLY QUIET TAF PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. WINDS
SHOULD DECREASE FROM AROUND 10 KTS NOW TO CALM AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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