067
FXUS64 KAMA 180520
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
-WATCHING FROST POTENTIAL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
LATEST 04-05Z OBS ACROSS THE REGION SHOWS ABOUT 90-95% OF THE
PANHANDLES WITH VARIABLE WINDS AND TD VALUES RANGING BETWEEN THE
UPPER 30S AND MID 40S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH A SOUTH WIND AND MID 50S TD VALUES. FURTHER ALOFT,
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE MAIN H500 POSITIVE TILTED
TROUGH AXIS CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND FINALLY THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES AND INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY MID MORNING. OUT ALONG THE
MAIN TROUGH AXIS, IN-CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHT TD CONVERGENCE ZONE
IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE, THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF A
SHOWER OR STORM THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE THE MAIN DISTURBANCE
MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT IS POSSIBLE LEADING UP TO SUNSET. THESE WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE PANHANDLES BEHIND
THE FRONT, IN-CONJUNCTION WITH H850 CAA DROPPING BELOW 8C BY EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING UNDER CLEAR SKIES, WATCHING A GOOD CHANCE FOR FROST
TO DEVELOP. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR FROST WILL BE THE NW
PANHANDLES. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER
80S, LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES TO
MID 40S IN THE SE TX PANHANDLE. MAY HAVE TO ISSUE FROST HEADLINES
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT IF TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW
THESE CONDITIONS. A LOW AMPLITUDE H500 RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR AVERAGE WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 70S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 938 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2025
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. A SERIES OF FRONT AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO ROLLER COASTER
THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK, FROM HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR
AVERAGE, DEPENDING ON THE DAY. RAIN CHANCES COULD RETURN BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM A POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE, IF THE
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL DATA CONTINUES WITH THIS TREND GOING FORWARD.
WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY AS WE GET CLOSER WITH TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1215 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 06Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z BEFORE WINDS SUBSIDE TO
5-15 KTS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>003-006-
007.
OK...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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