893
FXUS64 KAMA 190913
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
413 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
- BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
MAINLY FAVORING THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
AS OF LATE TONIGHT, LATEST SATELLITE AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO SEE THE COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES. THIS FRONT WILL HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STILL CREATE
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS THAT WILL QUICKLY DIE DOWN UNDER THE
COLDER STABLE AIR MASS FOLLOWING IT. ONCE SETTLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY BOTTOMING
NEAR FREEZING BY THE TIME THE SUN RISE FOR SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME A FROST ADVISORY IS PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
STARTING AT 3 AM AND LASTING THROUGH 9 AM. THESE COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONLY REACHING INTO 70S. HOWEVER, DRY WEATHER DOES NOT
NECESSARILY ME QUITE WEATHER AS MOST MODELS SEE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BECOME PRESENT OVER THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, THE POTENTIAL WILL BE THERE FOR QUICK FIRE
STARTS, BUT GIVEN MODELS ARE PLACING THE BEST CONDITIONS IN AREAS
WITH STILL GREEN VEGETATION, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANYTHING
BEYOND THAT. INSTEAD BETTER CHANCES FOR ELEVATED, AND EVEN
CRITICAL, FIRE WEATHER COULD FALL IN THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES
MONDAY. PRESENT MODEL AGREEMENT IS SEEN GOOD DRY AIR FUNNEL INTO
THE PANHANDLES DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL TO SEE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DIP BELOW 15% IN THE SOUTH. ADDED TO THIS
WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL LOOK TO BE ABLE
TO GUST AROUND 35 TO 40 MPH AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT THAT
NIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS TO MOSTLY STAY IN THE
70S TO 80S DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT PUSHES IN.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS MOST MODELS SEE THE
EXPECTED COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT. AT THIS
TIME POTENTIAL IS PRESENT TO ONCE AGAIN SEE FROST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES AS LOW TEMPERATURE FALL BACK INTO THE 30S.
HOWEVER, THE DAY LOOK TO STAY ON THE QUIET SIDE BEYOND THE COOLER
WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES STAYING MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. FROM HERE DRIER WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY
AS MODELS SEE THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXIT AND LEAVE THE PANHANDLES
IN A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER, OUR DRY PATTER MAY
FINALLY BE DISRUPTED THURSDAY WITH LATEST MODEL AGREEMENT SEEING A
CLOSER UPPER-LEVEL LOW PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN UNTIED STATES
AND INTO THE PANHANDLES. AT THIS TIME LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
AROUND 20 TO 30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY, WHICH CAN STILL EASILY CHANGE FOR THE BETTER OR WORSE
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW PUSHES THROUGH. OTHERWISE, DRIER
WEATHER WILL LOOK TO FOLLOW AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1217 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
DRY BUT COLD WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
WITH PRESENT BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOKING TO QUIET DOWN BEFORE
SUNRISE. POTENTIAL IS PRESENT FOR FROST TO FORM AT KDHT AND KGUY
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND
THE LOW TO MID 30S. OTHERWISE LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO HOLD AT
ALL THREE TERMINALS THROUGH THE PACKAGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2025
SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS THE EXITING SYSTEM WILL SEE THE PANHANDLES RETURN TO
OUR TYPICAL BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND SET UP THAT COULD
SEE 20FT WINDS PUSH AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST UPWARDS OF 35
MPH. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE 20% WITH THE STILL
GREEN VEGETATION KEEPING CONDITIONS FROM BEING TOO WIDESPREAD.
HOWEVER, ACTIVITY YESTERDAY HAS SHOWN THAT THERE ARE DRY FUEL
PRESENT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PANHANDLES THAT COULD LEAD TO VERY
SIMILAR IA TYPE FIRES. MONDAY, ON THE OTHER HAND, HAS THE MUCH
HIGHER POTENTIAL TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED AND EVEN CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RH VALUES LOOK TO PLUMMET BELOW 15% IN
THE SOUTH. THESE LOW RH VALUES WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
WESTERLY WINDS THAT CAN INCREASE UPWARDS OF 25 MPH WITH GUST
PUSHING THE 35 TO 40 MPH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING COLD FRONT THAT
NIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR TXZ001>004-006-
007.
OK...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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