424
FXUS64 KAMA 191730
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1230 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 407 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
- BREEZY WINDS COMBINED WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY AND MONDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
MAINLY FAVORING THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS CURRENTLY IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS TODAY
WITH A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE PASSING ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS ALREADY BEING INFLUENCED BY A
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT THE APPROACHING WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS
CURRENTLY IN THE WEST. THIS TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE THE
DRIVING FORCE FOR THE GUSTY SW WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY.
THE MOST LIKELY WIND GUSTS THAT SHOULD OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE IN THE 20S TO 30S MPH. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCE FOR OCCASSIONAL STRONGER GUSTS IN THE LOWER 40S MPH. THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL GENERALLY SEE STRONG WINDS COMPARED TO THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES FOR TODAY. TONIGHT THE WINDS HAVE A HIGH CHANCE
OF REMAINING BREEZY WHICH WILL KEEP THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMER.
ON MONDAY THE WEATHER SYSTEM PASSES ACROSS THE REGION PASSING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE COLD FRONT IS MOST LIKELY TO
PASS THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME IN A
N TO S FASHION. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
EVEN FASTER DOING SO ENTIRELY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MATERIALLY
THIS DOESN'T IMPACT THE FORECAST MUCH BEYOND MAKING THE WINDS
NORTHERLY FASTER AND LOWERING THE HIGH TEMPERATURES BY A FEW
DEGREES. THERE IS NO MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM
AT ALL SO THERE WILL NOT BE MANY IF ANY CLOUDS MUCH LESS ANY
RAIN.
WITH THE GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS THERE IS SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, SEE FIRE SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
THE MORNING OF TUESDAY HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF STARTING OFF COLD WITH
MORNING LOWS NEAR FREEZING IN THE NW PANHANDLES. THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR TO THE SE THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PUSH. STILL SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE FROST CONDITIONS SO
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED IN THE
FUTURE ONCE THE AERIAL EXTENT OF THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS BETTER
KNOWN. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. COME THURSDAY THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM HAS A MODERATE CHANCE OF MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING WETTER WEATHER. THE BIG QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH
MOISTURE THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PACK. CURRENTLY THE TRAJECTORY
IS LESS THAN FAVORABLE AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM WOULD MOVE WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST. THIS WOULD SQUEEZE OUT A
MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM BEFORE IT
EJECTS OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EVEN ONCE IT ARRIVES THE
MOISTURE FROM GULF IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO LIE TO THE EAST OF THE
PANHANDLES. THIS MAKES IT SO THAT THERE IS ONLY A LOW TO MODERATE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE PANHANDLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE
EASTERN PANHANDLES AS THIS AREA WOULD BE CLOSER TO MOISTURE FETCH
FROM THE GULF. IF THE SYSTEM SHIFTS AND COMES IN WITH A MORE
FAVORABLE TRAJECTORY, THEN THE PANHANDLES WOULD HAVE THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE RAINFALL.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON,
OVERNIGHT, AND THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEAKER SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FORMATION
OF SPEED LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS. A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES WILL BRING A SHARP SHIFT TO N WINDS LATE MONDAY MORNING
TO EARLY AFTERNOON IN A N TO S FASHION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 857 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
BREEZY TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND ARE SETTING UP TODAY WITH
WINDS OF AROUND 15 TO 27 MPH WITH GUST UPWARDS OF 40 MPH. MINIMUM
RH VALUES ARE LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 20S% TO 30S% THROUGH TODAY
WHICH MAKES IT MARGINALLY DRY. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF GREEN
VEGETATION THAT WILL HELP TO MITIGATE SOME OF THE FIRE CONCERNS.
FURTHER THE AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS ARE THE SAME AREAS THAT SAW
THE HIGHEST RECENT RAINFALL WHICH FURTHER MITIGATES SOME FIRE
CONCERN. STILL THERE IS ENOUGH DRY FUELS PRESENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THAT ISOLATED FIRE STARTS MAY TAKE HOLD AND SPREAD WITH
THE BREEZY WINDS MAINLY IN AREAS THAT DIDN'T SEE MUCH RECENT
RAINFALL. THUS THERE IS HIGH CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SPOTTY AREAS OF
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAINLY DRIVEN BY THE BREEZY
WINDS.
MONDAY IS MORE LIKELY TO SEE INCREASED ELEVATED TO EVEN NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE RH DROPS INTO THE TEENS %
ACROSS LARGE SWATHS OF THE PANHANDLES. WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
BREEZY WITH 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH. ANOTHER HAZARD THAT WILL INCREASE FIRE CONCERN IS THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WIND DIRECTION SHARPLY FROM
WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS
WILL BROADEN THE AREA A FIRE CAN MOVE IF IT CATCHES AND SPREADS
AHEAD OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE FIRE CONCERNS COME TO
AN END LATE ON MONDAY AS THE WINDS WEAKEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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