817
FXUS64 KAMA 050552
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1152 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
RECORD HEAT LIKELY RETURNS TO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY.
80'S ARE FORECAST ALMOST AREAWIDE.
POTENTIAL ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.
A COLD AIR MASS ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW A RETURN TO SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES AND SUB-FREEZING MORNING LOWS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
A SURFACE LOW BACKED BY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. BREEZY, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS ALL DAY TODAY. TOMORROW, A MID-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DIG
SOUTH TROUGH THE COMBINED PANHANDLES BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES ON FRIDAY.
TODAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE. HOWEVER, WE WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 60'S AND 70'S DURING THE AFTERNOON.
TOMORROW, WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR RECORD HEAT TO RETURN
TO THE PANHANDLES, WITH 80'S FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REGION.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED,
BUT RIGHT NOW THE CURRENT FORECAST PARAMETERS SUGGEST THAT THEY
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW OR AT ELEVATED. THE DRIVING FORCE FOR OUR
INCREASING RFTIS ARE THE LOW (<20%) MINIMUM RH VALUES ACROSS THE
CWA. THE CAVEAT, AND OUR BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY, IS HOW STRONG THE
WINDS WILL BE. CURRENT OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE NBM MEAN
SHOW BREEZY, SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY. THESE WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL JET. THE ISSUE RISES FROM THE JET'S
PLACEMENT POTENTIALLY BEING FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA, WHICH WOULD
PROMOTE LIGHTER WINDS IN IT'S WAKE. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS
SHORTWAVE STALLS OVER THE TX PANHANDLE AND ALLOW STRONGER WINDS.
IN THAT SCENARIO, ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MAY BE MET. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR CHANGES TO THE TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
FRIDAY, OUR SECOND COLD FRONT FOR THE WEEK SHOULD IMPACT THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE A CHANCE TO RETURN TO
THE 60'S FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WHILE AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE MAY REMAIN IN THE 70'S. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL
NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN
DURING THE DAY, AND LOWS WILL ALSO DROP BACK INTO THE 30'S AND
20'S. POOR MOISTURE QUALITY OVER THE AREA WILL STILL KEEP POPS
OUT OF THE EXTENDED.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST TUE NOV 4 2025
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR CONDITIONS
AND BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES TODAY. WINDS WILL FLOW
FROM THE NORTH AND GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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