860
FXUS64 KAMA 052329
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
529 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY ACROSS
MOST OF THE PANHANDLES DUE TO BREEZY WINDS, DRY CONDITIONS,
ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES, AND DRY/MOSTLY CURED GRASSES.
- FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
PANHANDLES SATURDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. EXPECTING WIND CHILLS VALUES IN THE TEENS TO
MID-20S BOTH NIGHTS ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE ONGOING AS THE STEEP POST-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE MID-60S AND
LOW-70S.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
US THROUGH TONIGHT, AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN
EASTERN COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. 850MB WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ADVECT ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES
FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US/NORTHERN MEXICO. 12Z 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 13C-14C WHICH IS ROUGHLY THE 75TH PERCENTILE
OF SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY FOR THE DAY. ADDITIONALLY, WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AND, AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS THROUGH
THE DAY, WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 25-35 MPH WITH AROUND A 20-40% CHANCE TO SEE WIND GUSTS
REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED 40 MPH. GIVEN THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED
VERY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AND DRY DOWNSLOPING WINDS,
THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY THROUGH
THE MORNING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NOVEMBER; HIGHS ARE
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S. WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES AROUND 10-15% AND THE DRY/MOSTLY CURED FUELS,
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MOST OF THE CWA.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAVE
BROAD AGREEMENT THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN
THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HELP WEAKEN THE WINDS TO SOME DEGREE AND
COULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO PLATEAU IF NOT SLIGHTLY COOL.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS
OF THURSDAY AND MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA IN THE EVENING.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST WED NOV 5 2025
THURSDAY'S TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY CHANGE FROM NORTHERLY TO SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER
THAN NORMAL WITH MID-60S TO MID-70S FAVORED AND NO CHANCE FOR RAIN.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL
CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH SATURDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW-60S TO LOW-70S. HOWEVER, THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THESE HIGHS... PARTICULARLY WITH
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD EXTENT... GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FRONTAL
TIMING. AS A RESULT, THERE IS AROUND A 5-10 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE NBM 25TH AND 75TH PERCENTILE, AND A 10-
20 DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NBM 10TH AND 90TH PERCENTILE.
HOWEVER, GIVEN LOCAL TENDENCIES FOR FRONTS TO PUSH THROUGH THIS AREA
FASTER THAN MOST (SOMETIMES ALL) GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, WILL CERTAINLY
LEAN MORE TOWARD THE COOLER SOLUTIONS THAN THE WARMER SOLUTIONS.
FURTHERMORE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY BEHIND THE
FRONT. CURRENTLY THE NBM IS SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 10-20
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, BUT THERE IS DEFINITELY ROOM TO GO
HIGHER. THINKING 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
IS GOING TO BE MORE REALISTIC. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTH AND AFTER THE SUN SETS, BUT AS COLD AIR SETTLES IN, WIND
CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MID-20S WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES.
AS THE TROUGH SETTLES IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND STRONG NORTHERLY
FLOW ALOFT SETTLES IN OVER THE PANHANDLES, A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID-50S. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE WATCH IN THE SE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WHERE A HARD FREEZE HAS NOT YET BEEN ACHIEVED.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER NIGHT WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS TO MID-20S IS
EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM MONDAY AND BEYOND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED NOV 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, VEERING TO
SOUTHWESTERLY BY SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING WITH WINDS OF 10-20
KTS, WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29
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