802
FXUS64 KAMA 080520
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1120 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
- A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO SEE BREEZY TO
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, WHICH MAY LEAD TO
SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
- DRY CONDITIONS WILL LOOK TO HOLD FOR ANOTHER WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON HIGH SLOWLY WARMING BACK INTO THE 70S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SET TO PUSH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING AS MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIG SOUTH OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A DECENT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK THAT WILL LIKELY
BLEED DOWN THE SURFACE WITH THE LATEST CAMS SUGGESTING WINDS
CAPABLE OF GUSTING UPWARDS OF 35 TO 40 MPH FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THESE WINDS WILL UNFORTUNATELY HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MEET UP
WITH THE STILL DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AND OPEN THE
AREA TO SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES WILL HAVE TO BE MONITOR BIT MORE HEAVILY AS
LATEST REPORTS CONTINUE TO SEE VERY DRY FUELS IN THE AREA THAT
WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FIRE STARTS. REGARDLESS, THESE WINDS
WILL ALSO SERVE A SECONDARY FUNCTION OF FORCING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
INTO THE PANHANDLES. THIS COLD POOL WILL SEE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
MORNING PLUMMET INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S TO 50S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO SEE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW RESIDE IN
THE UPPER-LEVELS OVER THE PANHANDLES AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
ON TO THE EAST COAST. THIS FLOW WILL AIR IN KEEP A DECENT COLD
POOL OVER THE PANHANDLES FOR MONDAY MORNING WITH POTENTIAL TO SEE
MULTIPLE LOCATIONS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S BY THE TIME THE SUNRISES.
GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL A FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN PLACE OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE PANHANDLES. MOVING FURTHER INTO THE
WEEK WILL SEE WEATHER STAY RATHER DRY WITH MOST MODELS SEEING A
RIDGE SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLES AND HOLDING. TEMPERATURES
WILL LOOK TO WARM IN RESPONSE TO THE RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED HIGH
PRESSURE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS SLOWLY RETURNING TO THE 70S FOR THE
MID-WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CST FRI NOV 7 2025
PRESENT OBSERVATIONS AT THE TERMINALS HAVE SEEN WINDS STAY ON
LIGHTER SIDE WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, AN INCOMING COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO SEE STRONG WINDS PUSH INTO THE UPPER- LEVELS, WHICH
CAN LEAD TO SOME LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ONCE TERMINALS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT
THESE WINDS SHOULD MIX DOWN BETTER AND CREATE BREEZY TO GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FREEZE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
TXZ014-015-019-020.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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