634
FXUS64 KAMA 031806
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1206 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO THE 70S BY MONDAY.
- ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- PATTERN CHANGE MAY BE ON ITS WAY WITH A NEW SYSTEM LOOKING TO
MOVE ACROSS WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
A RATHER DRY AND QUITE DAY TO OPEN THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE NEW
YEAR AS PRESENT OBSERVATIONS SEE A WEAK SURFACE HIGH SITTING OVER
THE PANHANDLES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS SEEN WINDS STAY ON
THE LIGHT BUT VARIABLE SIDE FOR MOST OF THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. AS IT STANDS, PRESENT CAMS DON’T EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO
MOVE OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT IN CORRESPONDENCE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL
HIGH TO OUR SOUTH REGAINING ITS STRENGTH. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR THIS
QUITE DAY TO BE THE START OF OUR NEXT WARMING TREND WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN RETURNING TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MOVING INTO
SUNDAY, DOES SEE THIS DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUE AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN AGAIN. HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE, MODELS DO SEE A WEAK LEE-SIDE LOW SET UP AND FORCE BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WHILE PRESENT MODELS DO NOT
EXPECTED MUCH IN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE WINDS, THERE STILL
IS ENOUGH TO SEE SPEEDS PICK UP TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST
UP TO 35 MPH NOT FULLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. THANKFULLY THE
PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER TOMORROW SHOULD HELP KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES UP FOR THE AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL ALSO KEEP FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LOW-END ELEVATED AT THEIR WORST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE NEW YEAR LOOKS TO START LIKE END OF THE
PREVIOUS AS DRY AND WARM WEATHER CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER THE
PANHANDLES. FOR MONDAY, PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOCUSED ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER. AS IT
STANDS, PRESENT CAMS EXPECT A LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW TO HOLD JUST
OFF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE PANHANDLES
UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY DOWN-SLOPING WINDS. UNLIKE SUNDAY, HOWEVER,
THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE TO DRY OUT MORE AND RESULT IN RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING CLOSER TO 15%. THESE DRIER CONDITIONS,
ALONGSIDE STILL BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, COULD PROVE ENOUGH TO
KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AT LEAST ELEVATED FOR THE DAY.
HOWEVER BY TUESDAY, THESE CONDITIONS DO START TO WANE AS THE LEE-
SIDE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF AND THE PATTER STARTS TO SHIFT IN
FAVOR OF A POTENTIAL TROUGH BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN
COAST. PRESENT ENSEMBLES DO FAVOR THIS TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST
TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IMPACTS FROM THE
ASSOCIATED SYSTEM HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON THE LOWER END WITH PRESENT
NBM ONLY SEEING 10 TO 15% CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR
AREA. STILL THERE IS A LOT UNCERTAINTY PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND EVEN THE SLIGHTEST SHIFT COULD SEE THE CHANCE FOR THE
PANHANDLES INCREASE. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO FINALLY
BREAK OUR WARM CYCLE AS MODELS SEE MORE TROUGHS FOLLOW OUT OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO END THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS STILL TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO SAY IF PRECIPITATION WILL FOLLOW THESE TROUGHS AS
WELL, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASE THAT THE PANHANDLES COULD BE CLOSER
TO 40S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
LATEST OBSERVATIONS HAVE SEEN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD
OVER THE PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL LIKELY SEE SURFACE
WINDS LIGHT BUT VARIABLE UNTIL SUNSET. FROM THERE, MOST CAMS HAVE
THE HIGH MOVING OFF AND STATIONS SHIFTING TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH
THE CURRENT PACKAGE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...11
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