005
FXUS64 KAMA 041144
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
544 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO START THE WEEK WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES REACHING BACK INTO THE 70S TODAY AND
MONDAY.
- ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM HAS LOW CHANCES TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
PANHANDLES LATER THIS WEEK, BUT HIGHER CHANCES FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
WHETHER YOU'D CALL IT MILD, WARM, OR EVEN HOT FOR JANUARY, THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THIS WEEK WILL START OFF WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA SETS SHOW A BROAD
H500 RIDGE DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS, PROMOTING OUR WARMER
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THIS EQUATES TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S TODAY, AND LOW 70S TO NEAR 80S ON MONDAY. BOTH OF THE NEXT 2
DAYS WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY AS WELL, DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT SETTING UP OVER THE PANHANDLES. TODAY'S WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH WITH POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
GUSTS. COMBINED WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE TEENS
AND 20S, SPOTTY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON.
MONDAY WILL BE A TOUCH WINDIER, WITH A 30-40 KT 850MB JET
POSITIONED NEAR THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO I-40 CORRIDOR. THIS IS
WHERE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED OUT OF THE WEST AT 15-25 MPH, WITH
STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 MPH MIXING DOWN (10-30% CHANCE FOR GUSTS >40
MPH). THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ADVECT LOWER DEW POINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S TO THE REGION, LEADING TO MINIMUM RH VALUES AS LOW AS
10% IN SOME SPOTS ON MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
UNFORTUNATELY SPELLS ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
WILL THE PANHANDLES FIND A RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK?
THERE ARE SOME REASONS FOR LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT THE POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
STRETCHED UP AND DOWN THE PLAINS WILL BE DE-AMPLIFIED AND
DISPLACED THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK AS A DEEPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OFF THE PACIFIC COAST, HELPING US RETURN TO SLIGHTLY COOLER
WEATHER. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP US IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S TUE-
WED, UNTIL MODELS SHOW THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH EJECTING INTO
THE PLAINS THU-FRI. AS OF LATEST MODEL RUNS, MOISTURE RETURN WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS BEST FAVORED ACROSS THE SE TEXAS PANHANDLE,
ASSUMING THE TROUGH TRACKS FAVORABLY (10-20% CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE
RAIN). A COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO REACH THE AREA FRI-SAT, BRINGING
A SLIM SHOT TO SQUEEZE OUT LIGHT SHOWERS OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW,
PENDING TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES BEHIND THE FRONT. AS
PREVIOUSLY ALLUDED TOO, THERE'S STILL A SMALL CONTINGENCY OF
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS GIVING HOPE FOR PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM,
BUT PROBABILITIES AND ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP DIMINISHING THIS
POTENTIAL. EITHER WAY, THIS NEW PATTERN SHOULD SPELL A RETURN TO
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP TO 20 KTS OR SO WITH A SHORT PERIOD
OF GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AROUND 18Z.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page