419
FXUS64 KAMA 042323
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
523 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ELEVATED TO LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH WIND GUSTS UPWARDS 40 MPH POSSIBLE THAT AFTERNOON.
- A PATTERN SHIFT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER
CURRENTLY PRESENT FOR THE DAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FOLLOW FOR THE END OF THE NEW WEEK
WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE 40S BY NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
THE PRESENT DRY AND WARM PATTERN CONTINUES TODAY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SETTLES IN AGAIN. HOWEVER AT THE
SURFACE, LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO SEE A WEAK LEE-SIDE LOW SET UP TO
FORCE SOME BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
PRESENT MODELS DO NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR
THESE WINDS, THERE STILL IS ENOUGH TO SEE SPEEDS PICK UP TO AROUND
15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUST UP TO 35 MPH NOT FULLY OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THANKFULLY THE PRESENCE OF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER IS
CURRENTLY HELPING KEEP BOTH THE WINDS AT BAY AND THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES UPS, WHICH IN TURN HAS KEPT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
DOWN. TEMPERATURES, ON THE OTHER HAND, WILL LIKELY NOT GET AS HOT
AS INITIALLY EXPECTED, WITH MOST LOCATION BARLEY REACHING THE
UPPER 60S.
A SIMILAR LEE-SIDE LOW SET UP IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MONDAY.
UNLIKE TODAY, HOWEVER, THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER PRESENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE TO DRY OUT MORE AND
RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING CLOSER TO 15%. ADD TO
THESE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE MUCH BETTER UPPER-LEVEL
SUPPORT WITH MULTIPLE MODELS SEEING A DECENT 850 AND 500MB WIND
JET SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. THIS EXTRA SUPPORT
WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO INCREASE OVER THE AFTERNOON TO SPEEDS
CLOSER TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST UPWARDS 40 MPH POSSIBLE. GIVEN
THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING LOW-
END CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES
TO ALSO SPIKE DURING THIS DRY EVENT WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOKING
TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
A BIT QUIETER CONDITIONS LOOK TO FOLLOW TUESDAY AS THE LEE-SIDE
LOW BEGINS TO MOVE OFF AND THE PATTER STARTS TO SHIFT THANKS TO A
POTENTIAL TROUGH BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN COAST.
PRESENT ENSEMBLES DO FAVOR THIS TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST TOWARDS
THE PANHANDLES BY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IMPACTS FROM THE ASSOCIATED
SYSTEM HAVE BEEN TRENDING ON THE LOWER END WITH PRESENT NBM ONLY
SEEING 10 TO 20% CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR AREA. STILL
THERE IS A LOT UNCERTAINTY PRESENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EVEN THE
SLIGHTEST SHIFT COULD SEE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE
PANHANDLES INCREASE. REGARDLESS, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO FINALLY
BREAK OUR HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN AS MODELS SEE MORE TROUGHS FOLLOW
OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO END THE WEEK. WHILE THERE IS STILL
TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO HAVE TOO MUCH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT THE PANHANDLES WILL COOL
OFF AND BE CLOSER TO 40S BY THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT (10-15KTS) BUT ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL INCREASE AT ALL SITES. STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE AT KAMA, OUT OF THE WEST AT 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AT KDHT, AND LIGHTER
STILL AT KGUY. MID TO HIGH CLOUD DECKS WILL GRADUALLY ERODE
OVERNIGHT, WITH VFR SKY CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HRS.
HARREL
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
LATEST SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SEE DECENT CLOUD COVER HOLD OVER THE
PANHANDLES, WITH PRESENT CAMS NOT EXPECTING IT TO BREAK UP ANYTIME
SOON. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS PLAYED TO OUR BENEFIT AS IT HAS KEPT
BOTH WINDS WEAKER AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED. HOWEVER, THAT IS NOT GOING TO BE THE CASE FOR MONDAY AS
THE LEE-SIDE LOW SET UP LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. FOR THAT AFTERNOON THE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT
IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY WINDS COULD PEAK
AT AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUST UPWARDS 40 MPH POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLES. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL ALSO BE
MUCH LOWER WITH MULTIPLE AREAS EXPECTED TO BE AS LOW AS 15%. WITH
THESE CONDITIONS IN PLAY MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES IS EXPECTED TO SEE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH THE
SOUTHERN PANHANDLES POSSIBLY SEEING LOW-END CRITICAL CONDITIONS AT
TIMES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...38
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