126
FXUS64 KAMA 051117
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
517 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- WARM, WINDY, AND DRY CONDITIONS TODAY HAVE PROMPTED A RED FLAG
WARNING TO BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A WEATHER SYSTEM HAS LOW CHANCES TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE
PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT HIGHER CHANCES
FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE FORECAST TODAY AS
WE ANTICIPATE A WARM, DRY, AND WINDY MONDAY. THROUGH THE DAY,
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERATE A SURFACE LOW OVER
SE COLORADO, LEAVING A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS IS WHERE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON, OUT OF THE WEST AT 15-25 MPH. A NARROW JET AT 850MB AND
700MB WITH WINDS OF 30-40 KTS WILL HELP STRONGER GUSTS MIX TO THE
GROUND AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S. A MAJORITY OF
GUSTS WILL BE IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE, BUT THERE ARE 10-20%
PROBABILITIES FOR ROGUE GUSTS >40 MPH PRIMARILY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ADVECT LOWER
DEW POINTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S TO THE REGION, LEADING TO MINIMUM RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 10% IN SOME SPOTS. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
INVESTIGATED FURTHER IN THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.
WINDS WILL STAY SLIGHTLY BREEZY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL A
WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVES, SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST.
VERY MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ENSUE, KEEPING TUESDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS (<10 MPH). THE
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE FOR THE SOUTHERN
TX PANHANDLE, WITH MANY LOCATIONS NOT DIPPING BELOW 40 DEGREES.
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES WILL BE COOLER BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AFTER A WARM AND BREEZY WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S,
OUR ATTENTION SHIFTS TO LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK WHEN WE AWAIT A
POTENTIAL CHANGE OF PACE FOR THE REGION'S WEATHER. BY MIDWEEK,
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A CLOSED LOW TAKING SHAPE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST,
BEFORE TREKKING EASTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE PLAINS EARLY THURSDAY. LATEST INDICATIONS
ARE HINTING THAT AS THIS SYSTEM OPENS UP AND EJECTS, IT MAY PULL A
BETTER SWATH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH BY THURSDAY
(PWATS 0.50-1.00"). THE BULK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT STILL APPEARS TO BE
TRACKING MOSTLY SOUTH OF OUR CWA, BUT IF BETTER DYNAMICS OR SMALLER
PERTURBATIONS ARE POSITIONED FAVORABLY, SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY
MATERIALIZE FOR MORE AREAS THAN JUST THE SE TX PANHANDLE (20-40%
POPS).
THURSDAY EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE NORTHWEST,
CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO DROP, ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHWEST COMBINED
PANHANDLES. GOING INTO FRIDAY MORNING, THE COLD CORE OF THE SYSTEM
MAY BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
WINDS, LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR
FREEZING. MODEST MOISTURE POOLED BEHIND THE FRONT COMBINED WITH
NEAR/SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES COULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW AREAS OF
SNOW OR A RAIN-SNOW MIX TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, FAVORING
THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME (20-40%
POPS). ANY POTENTIAL AMOUNTS ARE STILL UP IN THE AIR, BUT
PROBABILISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUTS FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW AMOUNTS AT
THIS TIME, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE VERY MARGINAL
TEMPERATURE PROFILES BEING FORECAST. ANY SHIFTS IN THE SYSTEMS TRACK
OR TIMING COULD GREATLY IMPACT THIS FORECAST, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURE
PROFILES NEEDED FOR SNOW TO DEVELOP. MODELS HAVE FLIP FLOPPED BACK
AND FORTH ON THE PRECIP POTENTIAL, LENDING LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS PROGGED TO BECOME
FAR MORE STAGNATE. DRY AIR WILL RESUME ITS GRIP OVER THE REGION AND
PRECIP CHANCES DISAPPEAR. HIGHER CONFIDENCE LIES IN THE FACT THAT A
RETURN TO CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR THE
PANHANDLES FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK (HIGHS IN THE 40S & 50S, LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 20S).
HARREL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
BREEZY AND SOMEWHAT GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MAYBE A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
AT LEAST ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
COMBINED PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MORE CRITICAL CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST AT 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH (10-20% CHANCE FOR HIGHER GUSTS). RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS WILL BE COMMON PLACE, WITH 20-50%
CHANCES FOR SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES. THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY CLOUD
COVER TO PREVENT WINDS FROM BEING QUITE AS STRONG AND RH VALUES FROM
BEING QUITE AS LOW AT TIMES, BUT AT LEAST LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE REGARDLESS. THESE AREAS HAVE DRY ENOUGH FUELS, SO FORECAST
RFTI VALUES OF 3 TO 5 DO SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR FIRE STARTS AND SPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FROM 12 PM TO 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ009>020-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36
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