878
FXUS64 KAMA 232100
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM 2 TO 4
INCHES FOR THE NORTHWEST UP TO 8 TO 12 INCHES FOR THE SOUTHEAST.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY FOR TRAVEL,
ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE
HEAVIEST SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
- EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MAY REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
LIGHT SNOWFALL HAS BEGUN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS THUS FAR. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED LATER ON THIS EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
LEADS TO INCREASED SNOW RATES. TEMPERATURES AT THIS TIME ARE
RANGING FROM THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS, WITH THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. GIVEN BREEZY EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS, WIND CHILL VALUES ARE AS LOW AS 10 TO 15 BELOW
ZERO ALREADY. GIVEN THE COOLER HOURLY TEMPERATURES THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, HAVE UPDATED THE TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THIS EVENING.
HAVE ALSO UPDATED THE START TIME OF THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY AND
EXTREME COLD WARNING TO START AT 6 PM THIS EVENING.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS STARTING TO BEGIN ACROSS
THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
THE LATEST H500 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
THE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA OVER THE PACIFIC. THIS IS THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER TO THE REGION
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SO FAR TODAY, LIGHT DRIZZLE HAS BEEN OBSERVED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES ALONG WITH FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. MOSTLY FREEZING
DRIZZLE TO VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY AS DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY LEAD TO LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF ICE ON ELEVATED
SURFACES, SUCH AS BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. ANY SNOW AMOUNTS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE LIGHT, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE
TO REACH UP TO AN INCH THROUGH SUNSET.
THE FIRST MAIN BAND OF SNOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN INCREASES BEYOND SUNSET ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA AND THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW MOVES OVER THE REGION. LIGHT TO AT
TIMES MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME FRAME AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL END AS THE WAVE EXITS TO THE
EAST BY EARLY TO MID MORNING ON SATURDAY. FROM LATE MORNING TO AT
LEAST MID AFTERNOON, A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DUE TO THE LACK OF SYNOPTIC LIFT.
EVEN WITH THAT BEING SAID, FLURRIES TO LIGHT SNOW MAY STILL OCCUR,
BUT VERY LIMITED ACCUMULATION THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON SATURDAY IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES TO START THE
DAY ON SATURDAY WILL BE VERY COLD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
POTENTIALLY EVEN BELOW ZERO FOR A FEW AREAS. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION ALL DAY,
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE DAY. WIND CHILL VALUES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BE IN THE -10 TO -20 RANGE AND ONLY INCREASING UP TO
THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS BY THE AFTERNOON.
GOING INTO SATURDAY EVENING, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS. SATURATED ATMOSPHERIC COLUMNS ARE STILL FORECAST
OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH WILL GREATLY AID IN SNOW DEVELOPMENT
AS THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH A COMPLETELY SATURATED COLUMN, IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH
LIFT TO START TO GENERATE AT LEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE
REGION. MESOSCALE FEATURES COMBINED WITH THE STRONGER LIFT FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES UPWARDS OF 1-2
INCHES PER HOUR ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE BEST
H700-H500 MID LEVEL VERTICAL VELOCITIES INDICATE THE BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
CURRENTLY FAVORED AREA FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS ACROSS WEST TEXAS TO THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE
STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME, WITH SNOW AMOUNTS
REACHING AT LEAST 6 INCHES AND POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 12 INCHES.
THERE ARE STILL SOME MODELS SUGGESTING THAT SNOWFALL UPWARDS OF 12-
15 INCHES IS STILL A POSSIBILITY, BUT THE CHANCE FOR ANY ONE
LOCATION TO GET THAT MUCH SNOW IS QUITE LOW (10 PERCENT OR LESS) AT
THIS TIME.
TRAVEL ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE TREACHEROUS
IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THIS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL WILL INCLUDE INTERSTATE 40,
INTERSTATE 27, HIGHWAY 287, AND HIGHWAY 60. SNOW COVERED ROADS
SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND
WIND DRIVEN SNOW. THANKFULLY, WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG, ONLY
AROUND 10-15 MPH OR LESS, BUT WITH THE SNOW BEING ON THE DRIER SIDE
IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND TO BLOW IT AROUND WHILE FALLING. IF YOU
ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL ON SATURDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT, STRONGLY
CONSIDER STAYING HOME OR FINDING AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
SNOW WILL LIKELY STILL BE ONGOING AT SUNRISE ON SUNDAY AS THE MAIN
STORM SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. SNOW WILL COME TO AN END BY
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW FREEZING DUE TO THE
COLDER AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH SNOW COVER. ANOTHER
FRONT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR OVER THE
REGION. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT BUT
ACCUMULATION OF A HALF INCH OR LESS WOULD BE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
ON MONDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK BEYOND MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON HOW MUCH SNOW PACK IS IN PLACE OVER THE PANHANDLES,
BUT TEMPERATURES MAY STAY BELOW FREEZING THROUGH MID WEEK IF
THERE IS A LOT OF SNOW PACK. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SNOW
PACK, THAT POTENTIAL IS NOT CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST BUT IT IS
SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
MVFR TO LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS TAF CYCLE.
LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE PANHANDLES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
LEADING TO THE LOWER CEILINGS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE CHANCES FOR
SNOW AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS. WHEN SNOW DOES OCCUR, LOW VISIBILITY
ALONG WITH LOWER CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED, LEADING TO LIFR
CONDITIONS. PREVAILING SNOW AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED
FOR TIMING AND PRECIPITATION INTENSITY. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE SNOW POTENTIAL AT THE VERY END OF THIS TAF CYCLE, BUT THE
LOWER CEILINGS WILL REMAIN.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ001-006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR TXZ001>003-006>008-011-012-016-017-317.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ002>005-
007>020-317.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR TXZ004-005-009-010-013>015-018>020.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR OKZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ002-003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST SUNDAY
FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...05
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