784
FXUS64 KAMA 240535
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1135 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE NOW THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING WITH FURTHER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A LOW
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES FOR THE NORTHWEST UP TO 7 TO 9 INCHES FOR THE
SOUTHEAST.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS, ESPECIALLY FOR TRAVEL,
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED.
- EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL VALUES ARE EXPECTED NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON MONDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING MAY REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
BOTTOM LINE: A SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM IS IMPACTING THE
PANHANDLES AND WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH THE
WORST HIT AREAS BEING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN QUICKLY CAUSE HYPOTHERMIA AND
FROST BITE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
WHAT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WINTER SYSTEM IS ALREADY
IMPACTING THE PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY THE PANHANDLES IS UNDER MAINLY
A SEEDER FEEDER SETUP WHICH IS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT SNOW. THIS
IS WHERE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DROPPING ICE CRYSTALS INTO
THE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. THESE ICE CRYSTALS THEN FEED OFF THE LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS TO GENERATE THE SNOW GRAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN LOW
ACCUMULATION RATES OF SNOW ACROSS LARGE SWATHS OF THE PANHANDLES.
THE FIRST ROUND OF MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW COMES MID THIS MORNING
WITH THE INCREASING STRENGTH OF THE UPPER JET AND A SMALL WAVE
WITHIN THE JET'S FLOW. BOTH OF THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE LIFT
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
TO FORM. THESE BANDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW. THERE STILL REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHERE EXACTLY THE HEAVIEST OF THESE BANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS.
CURRENTLY IT IS STILL MOST LIKELY FOR THESE BANDS TO STAY SOUTH OF
THE TX PANHANDLE IN NORTH CENTRAL TX. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE
PANHANDLES WITH THE MODERATE SNOW BANDS THAT WILL PRODUCE LESSER
SNOW AMOUNTS. STILL THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE THAT THE HEAVIER
BANDS ARE MORE NORTHERLY DISPLACED WHICH WOULD LEAD TO GREATER
SNOW AMOUNTS. THE DIFFERENCE BEING THAT THE MODERATE BANDS WILL
MOST LIKELY LEAD TO 1 TO 2 INCHES WHILE THE HEAVIEST BANDS CAN
PRODUCE UPWARDS OF 4 INCHES. REGARDLESS OF WHAT INTENSITY OF SNOW
WE SEE DURING THE MID MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
JET AND WAVE WILL WANE GOING INTO THE LATER MID MORNING HOURS.
THIS WILL REVERT THE PANHANDLES BACK TO A LIGHT SNOW INTENSITY
MAINLY CAUSED FROM THE DEEP AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD LAYER. THIS LIGHT
SNOW WILL SLOWLY ADD TO THE SNOW TOTALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MORNING WILL BE BITTERLY
COLD WITH LOWS IN THE POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
PANHANDLES WIDE. WHILE THE WINDS MAY NOT BE THAT STRONG THEY WILL
STILL CAUSE THE WIND CHILLS TO DROP INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEGATIVE TEENS. THIS AFTERNOON WONT FAIR MUCH BETTER
WITH THE TEMPERATURES CLIMBING AT BEST INTO THE LOWER TENS WITH
THE WIND CHILLS IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS.
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THE UPPER LEVEL PORTION OF
THE WINTER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFT THAT WILL ALLOW THE FORMATION OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW BANDS. JUST LIKE THIS MORNING THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDS WITH
A MORE SOUTHERLY PLACEMENT CURRENTLY FAVORED. THIS WOULD KEEP THE
HEAVIES SNOW BANDS TO THE SOUTH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
TX WHILE THE PANHANDLES STAYS WITH THE MODERATE SNOW BANDS. THAT
BEING SAID THESE SNOW BANDS WILL BE THE ZENITH OF THE WINTER
SYSTEM BY BEING THE BIGGEST SNOW PRODUCERS. THE HIGHEST SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THESE SNOW BANDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
PANHANDLES WHERE 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL. THE AMOUNTS DROP
OFF TO THE NW WITH THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES SEEING 2 TO 5 INCHES
FROM THESE BANDS. THE FAR NW CORNER WILL MOST LIKELY GET LITTLE
SNOWFALL OF A FEW TENTHS TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE FOR THESE AMOUNTS TO BE HIGHER IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS
ARE MORE NORTHERLY DISPLACED. THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING
WILL REMAIN BITTERLY COLD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ONCE AGAIN GOING
DOWN TO THE POSITIVE TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS. LIKEWISE THE
WINDS CHILLS WILL BE VERY LOW DOWN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEGATIVE TEENS.
THE TOTAL REMAINING SNOW AMOUNTS FOR THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING A
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT FROM THE NW TO THE SE. FOR THE NW WHERE IT IS
DRIEST THE REMAINING SNOW TOTALS IS AROUND 1 TO 2 INCHES. ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES, IN A SW TO NE FASHION, THE REMAINING SNOW
TOTALS ARE 2 TO 6 INCHES. FOR THE HARDER HIT SE PORTION OF THE
PANHANDLES 6 TO 9 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY FOR REMAINING SNOW
TOTALS. THESE AMOUNTS CAN GO HIGHER IF WE ARE IMPACTED BY THE
HEAVIER SNOW BANDS IN BOTH THIS MORNING AND THIS NIGHT. LIKEWISE
SNOW AMOUNTS CAN DROP IF THE SNOW FAVORS A MORE SOUTHER
TRAJECTORY. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR EITHER OF THESE IS LOW, THE
HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS HAS HIGHER CHANCE OF OCCURRING THAN THE LOWER
SNOW AMOUNTS.
THE WEATHER SYSTEM DEPARTS SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WILL SEE THE SNOW
DECREASE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. THE LATER MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF SEEING CONTINUED SNOW
FLURRIES THAT WILL NOT ADD MUCH FURTHER ACCUMULATIONS. THE EVENING
OF SUNDAY A SMALL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE PANHANDLES BRINGING A
SMALL BURST OF SNOW THAT CAN PRODUCE A FEW MORE TENTHS OF AN INCH.
THIS WOULD BE THE LAST OF THE SNOW WITH DRIER CONDITIONS SETTING
UP FOR THE PANHANDLES. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE WARMER AS THE COLD
AIR SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES MAY BE
COLDER THAN FORECASTED DEPENDING ON PRIOR SNOW AMOUNTS.
ALL THIS SNOW WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF CAUSING TRAVEL IMPACTS
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE WORST TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL MOST
LIKELY OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. TRAVEL WILL BE TREACHEROUS IF NOT IMPOSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. THIS HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
WILL IMPACT INTERSTATE 40, INTERSTATE 27, HIGHWAY 287, AND
HIGHWAY 60. SNOW COVERED ROADS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW
VISIBILITY DUE TO FALLING SNOW AND WIND DRIVEN SNOW. THANKFULLY,
WINDS WILL NOT BE VERY STRONG, ONLY AROUND 10-15 MPH OR LESS, BUT
WITH THE SNOW BEING ON THE DRIER SIDE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH WIND
TO BLOW IT AROUND WHILE FALLING. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO TRAVEL
STRONGLY CONSIDER STAYING HOME OR FINDING AN ALTERNATE ROUTE.
THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES CAN RAPIDLY LEAD TO HYPOTHERMIA TO
ANY PERSON, PET, OR ANIMAL WITHOUT SHELTER OR HEAT. ANY EXPOSED
SKIN CAN QUICKLY DEVELOP FROST BITE IN THESE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES. PROTECT YOURSELF AND OTHERS BY DRESSING ACCORDINGLY
AND MAKING SURE ALL HAVE A WARM PLACE TO REST.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE WORK WEEK WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A PERIOD OF DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS FOR THE PANHANDLES AS A BROAD NW FLOW SETS UP.
THIS WOULD SHUNT THE COLDEST AIR TO THE EAST BUT ALSO PREVENT ANY
MOISTURE FROM ARRIVING IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER CONDITIONS
CAN REMAIN COLDER DEPENDING HEAVILY ON JUST HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET
FROM THE CURRENT WINTER SYSTEM. THE MORE SNOW WE HAVE THE MORE
LIKELY WE ARE TO REMAIN COLDER LONGER INTO THE WORK WEEK. THERE IS
HINTS THAT A SMALL WEATHER SYSTEM MAY PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND WHICH CAN BRING ANOTHER BRIEF PUSH OF
COLDER AIR. WHAT OTHER IMPACTS THIS SYSTEM CAN PRODUCE REMAIN
UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
A WINTER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES
INCLUDING ALL AIRFIELDS NOW THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL CAUSE BRIEF MVFR TO THE MORE LIKELY IFR
THROUGH VLIFR CONDITIONS. THE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT
INDICATIVE OF A WINDOW OF IMPROVEMENT JUST A LULL IN THE WIDER
IFR OR WORSE CONDITIONS. ICY RUNWAYS CAN OCCUR AT ALL TERMINALS
DUE TO THE SNOWFALL. THE CLOUD DECKS WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT ICING
THROUGH THEIR DEPTH WHICH CAN POSE AN IMMINENT HAZARD TO ANY
AIRCRAFT, CHECK THE AVIATION WEATHER CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION
ON ICING. IT REMAINS ADVISED FOR ALL GENERAL AVIATION AND EVEN
COMMERCIAL TO MILITARY PILOTS TO AVOID FLYING DURING THIS WINTER
STORM AS IT POSES A GRAVE THREAT TO ALL AIRCRAFT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ001-006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>003-
006>008-011-012-016-017-317.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ002>005-
007>020-317.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ004-005-009-
010-013>015-018>020.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ002-003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...98
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