874
FXUS64 KAMA 242002
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
202 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- WINTRY PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 6-9" IN
THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE, 1-3" IN THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE, AND UP TO 2 INCHES IN THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE.
- MODERATE TO MAJOR WINTER IMPACTS RELATED TO TRAVEL IS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. MAJOR ROADWAYS
IMPACTED INCLUDE HIGHWAY 287 AND I-40 EAST OF AMARILLO.
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20 DEGREES IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING
JUST EAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOVING INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. A
BROAD PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER
LOW WITH EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT RESULTING IN
BANDS OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
TEXAS, AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED
AS FAR NORTH AS SHAMROCK THIS MORNING WHICH IS EVIDENCE OF A MORE
ROBUST WARM LAYER ALOFT THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED.
GOING INTO THE MID AFTERNOON, ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE REGION RESULTING IN MORE PRECIPITATION AND BANDING
MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS WARM
LAYER ALOFT WILL COOL AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES WHICH
WILL RESULT IN ALL PRECIPITATION TURNING TO SNOW THIS AFTERNOON. AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES SOUTHWEST TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING, WE WILL SEE A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE PANHANDLES.
A MAJORITY OF THE CAMS, OPERATIONAL MODELS, AND GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
KEEP THIS BAND SOUTH AND EAST OF AMARILLO. WITH THAT SAID, THE CAMS
HAVE NOT HANDLED THE LOCATION OF THE PRECIPITATION WELL THIS
MORNING. MOST OF THE CAMS HAVE BEEN TOO DRY WHILE A FEW HAVE
MISPLACED IT TO THE WEST OR SLIGHTLY TOO FAR SOUTH. THEREFORE, THERE
IS REASON TO QUESTION THE CURRENTLY FORECASTED PLACEMENT OF THE
BANDING LATER TODAY AND THROUGH TONIGHT.
IN ANY CASE, EXPECTING A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST GRADIENT IN THE
SNOWFALL FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 1-3" NORTHWEST OF
THE GRADIENT AND 6-8" SOUTHEAST OF THE GRADIENT, LOCALLY HIGHER
POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE MODEL TRENDS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AN EYE ON THE RADAR TRENDS ONCE THE BAND DEVELOPS AS A
A QUICK, LAST MINUTE TREND IN THE SNOW TOTALS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH
IS CERTAINLY IN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. LOCATIONS LIKE AMARILLO,
PAMPA, AND CANADIAN ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WITHIN THE GRADIENT
WHICH MEANS ANY LAST MINUTE TREND NORTH OR SOUTH COULD RESULT IN
SNOW AMOUNTS 2-3" HIGHER OR LOWER THAN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
LIGHTER SNOWFALL IS FAVORED TO CONTINUE IN THE SE HALF OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY AIR ALOFT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH,
BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW AN INCH. MEANWHILE, LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND -5 DEGREES TO 5 DEGREES WITH WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS -20 DEGREES. THE EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN EXPANDED
FURTHER WEST IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME (COMPARED TO TODAY) WITH HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS IN THE EAST TO MID-20S IN THE WEST.
ANOTHER TROUGH WILL SWING DOWN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW TO THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL ONCE AGAIN DROP TO NEAR-ZERO OR BELOW ZERO FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT; AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF THE PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN US AS HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS
FAVORED TO TRACK ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON TUESDAY, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED OWING TO A VERY DRY AIRMASS.
HEIGHTS WILL RISE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RIDGE TRIES
TO BUILD IN, BUT TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED TO STAY COOLER THAN
NORMAL.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATER IN THE WEEK, THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY,
FOR SOME PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE COULD MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1110 AM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE FOR AMARILLO AND DALHART, AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, AND LIFTING TO VFR BY SUNDAY
MORNING. SNOW IS EXPECTED AND/OR ONGOING AT ALL 3 TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THERE'S LOW CONFIDENCE
REGARDING WHEN THERE WILL BE BREAKS IN THE SNOW, PARTICULARLY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. POCKETS OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE RESULTING IN REDUCED VISIBILITY. AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED THROUGH THE DAY.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ001-006.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>003-006-
007-011.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ001>011-016.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ002-003-007.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ004-005-
008>020-317.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ004-005-
008>010-012>020-317.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
TXZ012>015-017>020-317.
OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ001.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST MONDAY FOR
OKZ001>003.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ002.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ003.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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