192
FXUS64 KAMA 251730
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1130 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
- DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES, LARGELY RANGING FROM -5 DEGREES TO -17 DEGREES.
- LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND POTENTIALLY EVEN INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL. MEASURABLE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ONLY FAVORED IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, RANGING MOSTLY
BETWEEN A TRACE TO 0.4". HOWEVER, THERE IS A 30-70% CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED 0.5".
- FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
SCATTERED FLURRIES HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
MORNING BUT WILL BE COMING TO AN END EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR ALOFT WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL
"WARM" INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID-20S TODAY AS WE COULD SEE SOME
SUN THIS AFTERNOON, THOUGH THE ALBEDO FROM THE SNOWPACK WILL
REDUCE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES, BUT THE GREATER CHANCE
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
FAVORED TO STAY BETWEEN A TRACE TO AROUND 0.3", BUT THERE IS A
30- 70% CHANCE FOR TOTALS TO EXCEED 0.5" IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE, AND A 10-30% CHANCE TO REACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 1". WILL HAVE TO WATCH SOME FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL
TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR SKY, FRESH SNOWPACK, AND RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS. CURRENTLY THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SOME FREEZING FOG WILL
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, BUT THIS COULD END UP
EXTENDING FURTHER NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME REGARDING HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY MAY GO.
ANOTHER DANGEROUSLY COLD NIGHT, ENHANCED BY A CLEAR SKY AND FRESH
SNOWPACK, IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED, WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE BUT LOWS WILL BE IN THE
NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH WIND CHILLS BETWEEN
-5 TO -18 DEGREES.
THE PANHANDLES WILL BE ON THE BACKSIDE OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ON
MONDAY, FIRMLY IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION WHICH SUPPORTS
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO MAKE ANOTHER JUMP TOWARD
FREEZING, BUT IT MAY STILL BE A STRUGGLE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THAT THRESHOLD FOR LOCATIONS THAT STILL HAVE A SNOWPACK. MEANWHILE,
THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, WHICH MAY NOT HAVE MUCH OF A
MEANINGFUL SNOWPACK REMAINING BY MONDAY AND SHOULD SEE SOME
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, COULD REACH INTO THE UPPER-30S.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
BROAD TROUGHING IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
US ON TUESDAY AS A RIDGE IS PARKED OVER THE WESTERN US. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RIDE THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TOWARD
THE PANHANDLES, BUT OWING TO A LACK OF MOISTURE, NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TRY TO REBOUND FOR THE
SNOWPACK-AFFECTED PORTION OF THE PANHANDLES BUT WILL STRUGGLE. THE
NBM HAS HIGHS IN THE LOW-40S IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO
LOW-50S IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD FOR WHICHEVER PORTION OF THE
AREA STILL HAS A SNOWPACK REMAINING, BUT WILL LEAVE THE NBM ALONE
FOR NOW GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW MUCH THE SNOWPACK
WILL MELT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. A COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO MOVE
IN THROUGHOUT THURSDAY. THERE IS SOME VARIANCE REGARDING HOW COLD
THE AIRMASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
SUGGESTING LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN SUCH A COLD AIRMASS MAKING IT
TO THE AREA IS VERY LOW AT THE MOMENT.
THE MAJORITY OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES FAVOR A
POSITIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TO ENTER THE WEST COAST THROUGH
CALIFORNIA AND MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
VERY LOW AS POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGHS WITH WEAK MOISTURE RETURN
AHEAD OF IT TENDS TO NOT BENEFIT THE PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY PRESENT AT ALL TERMINALS. LIGHT SNOW
WITH VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL 3
TERMINALS WITH THE RELATIVELY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN GUYMON.
OTHERWISE, CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR IFR, DEPENDING ON HOW
PREVALENT THE CLOUD COVER WILL BE. FREEZING MIST WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN AMARILLO LATER TONIGHT INTO A PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING. THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE REGARDING HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY MAY GO.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR TXZ001>011-016.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR TXZ012>015-017>020-317.
OK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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