624
FXUS64 KAMA 271747
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1147 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS CONTINUE
TONIGHT.
- AFTER A BRIEF MIDWEEK WARM UP, COOLER TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY PASSED OVER THE PANHANDLES LAST NIGHT,
LEAVING LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS IN ITS WAKE TODAY. DESPITE SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM FURTHER
INTO THE 40S AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID SNOW MELT. CLEARING SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING TO THE TEENS
YET AGAIN TONIGHT. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
FOR A MAJORITY OF THE PANHANDLES AS WE SIT IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS,
POSITIONING A WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATOP THE
PLAINS. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS WILL HELP HIGHS BE RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S, ASIDE FROM ANY COOL SPOTS
IN THE SOUTHEAST DUE TO THE LAST GASP OF LINGERING SNOW PACK.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT
TO DIVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THURSDAY, SENDING BREEZY NORTH WINDS
OF 15-25 MPH OUR WAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH UPON ITS ARRIVAL.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL ARRIVE WITH MORE BARK THAN BITE, AS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES REMAIN ONLY SLIGHTLY CHANGED
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY (5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER). FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, MODELS SHOW A DEEPENING GREAT LAKES TROUGH CUTTING OFF INTO
A CLOSED LOW AS IT SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WOULD
LIKELY CLIP THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LARGE
SYSTEM, SENDING A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR OUR
WAY BEHIND A REINFORCING FRONT ON FRIDAY. PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS
HEAVILY IN DOUBT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM, AS THE
POSITION OF BOTH THE TROUGH AND MOISTURE AXES APPEAR LESS THAN
IDEAL. THE NBM CONTINUES TO DECREASE THE ALREADY MEAGER 10-15%
POPS FOR FRIDAY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LIGHT FLURRIES AND SNOW
BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDING TEMPERATURE PROFILES. IF PRECIP DOES
MATERIALIZE IT WOULD LIKELY BE OF INCONSEQUENTIAL AMOUNTS.
WARMING TRENDS QUICKLY RESUME NEXT WEEK AFTER THE SYSTEM EJECTS,
WITH A MORE AMPLIFIED H500 RIDGE SETTLING IN BY MONDAY. HIGHS WILL
BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE 50S AND 60S SUN-TUE, AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORED FOR A MAJORITY OF THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME
CONTINGENTS AMONG LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
OUTPUTS SUPPORTING MOISTURE RETURN WITH A HYPOTHETICAL
DISTURBANCE AROUND NEXT TUE-WED. GUIDANCE IS STILL ALL OVER THE
PLACE REGARDING THIS HYPOTHETICAL OUTCOME, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
DATA FOR NOW TO SUPPORT 20-30% POPS IN THE FORECAST. WE WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON TEMPERATURE AND MOISTURE PROFILES AS WELL AS THE
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AS WE GET CLOSER BEFORE MESSAGING FROZEN
VS LIQUID PRECIPITATION, IF WE RECEIVE ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL.
HARREL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR SKY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT ALL SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS
WITH ONLY SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECKS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT
INTO TOMORROW.
HARREL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...38
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