505
FXUS64 KAMA 281118
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
518 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT MAY AFFECT EARLY MORNING COMMUTES AND
ACTIVITIES. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MANY LOCATIONS IN THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
STRONG WINDS MAY AFFECT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ON THURSDAY. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AND STAY UP THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
TONIGHT, SNOW PACK AND LIGHT WINDS WILL AID IN KEEPING MORNING LOWS
BELOW 20 DEGREES. THE WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE MAY STILL DROP TO
SINGLE DIGIT VALUES FOR MANY AREAS, BUT IT WILL NOT DIFFER GREATLY
FROM THE AMBIENT TEMPERATURE.
WEDNESDAY IS ANOTHER DAY OF BUILDING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEFORE OUR
NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN BY THE LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE A SURFACE LOW
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WARM AIR
ADVECTION SUPPORTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 50'S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE.
SNOW MELT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA, BUT AREAS STILL HOLDING ONTO
WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK MAY STRUGGLE TO RISE INTO THE 50'S RANGE. EXPECT
LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AREAWIDE UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS
WILL STAY UP OVERNIGHT AS OUR NEXT SHORTWAVE, AND ADJACENT SURFACE
LOW, MOVE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND INTO THE PLAINS.
BY THURSDAY, SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER AND STAY NORTHERLY THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY BREEZY AS WELL, AND SHOULD NOT
SUBSIDE UNTIL THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES MAY FLUCTUATE
MARGINALLY FOR MOST OF THE FA, BUT THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
SHOULD STAY IN THE 40'S FOR THE DAY.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY UNSETTLED, THOUGH
NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE PANHANDLES IN THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. A LARGE SCALE CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND TAKES A SOUTHERLY TURN THIS WEEKEND. AS IT EXPANDS,
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WILL BE THE MOST
EFFECTED TEMPERATURE-WISE. SOME SNOW IS STILL POSSIBLE AS THE COLD
FRONT PLUNGES THROUGH THE CWA, BUT VERY FEW MODELS SUGGEST ANY
MEANINGFUL ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR. CURRENTLY, FORECAST POPS REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15%. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WE ANTICIPATE AT THIS
POINT IS SNOW FLURRIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS IS STILL
UNDER THE ASSUMPTION THAT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR AT ALL.
NEXT WEEK, UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REDEVELOP OVER
MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND AND BECOME ABOVE
NORMAL AREA WIDE. PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK WILL BE CONTINGENT ON
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND A PROPER SOURCE OF LIFT. DESPITE THE H500
RIDGE RETURNING, SOME LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL BE BREAKS
IN THE FLOW TO ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW, THERE ARE TOO
MANY INCONSISTENCIES TO HONE IN ON FURTHER DETAILS. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
DRY WEATHER HOLDS AGAIN FOR TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS HOLDING AT
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PACKAGE. HOWEVER, WINDS DOWN AT THE
SURFACE ARE LIKELY TO PICKUP WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GUST UPWARDS OF 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THIS TIME, WITH SPEEDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP DURING THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING HOURS THANKS TO GOOD LOW-LEVEL JET PRESENCE BEHIND THE
FRONT. THIS JET MAY ALSO CAUSE LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHEAR FOR THE
TERMINALS TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDED MENTION IN CURRENT PACKAGE.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...11
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