546
FXUS64 KAMA 290318
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
918 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
-BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND COLD FRONT FOR TOMORROW WITH SOME
GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES.
-SECOND COLD FRONT COOLS US DOWN FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND, WITH WARM
UP BACK INTO 60S BY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 829 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG +45 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SOME 50 MPH AND
EVEN 60 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THESE
GUSTS WILL BE FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.
MESOSCALE...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SETTING UP THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN ONCOMING SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO REINFORCE
THE LLJ AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THESE FEATURES IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
CLEARLY SHOWS THE LLJ STRENGTHENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, AND 850 MB
WINDS DISPLAY +50KT WIND SPEEDS BEING ACHIEVED. THIS AFTERNOON'S
CAMS KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT, BUT WIND GUSTS ARE MOSTLY
UNDER PERFORMING. 18Z SKEW-T PROFILES SHOW 15-25 MPH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE, BUT JUST 500-1,000M ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE 45-50 MPH
WINDS, EVEN REACHING UP TO 65 MPH IN SOME INSTANCES. THESE HEIGHTS
ARE ALSO WHERE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS EXPECTED, BUT THE
LLJ'S INFLUENCE MAY HELP THESE STRONGER WINDS BREAK THROUGH THE
INVERSION AND MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THERE IS A UP TO A 70% CHANCE A 45 MPH WIND GUSTS CAN BE MET IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
LATEST 00Z DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE YET FOR ANALYSIS; HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR SIGNS OF THESE GUSTS
OCCURRING. WHILE THESE HIGH-END WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION, LOCALIZED AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE
IMPACTS. AS THE COLD FRONT MEETS THE SURFACE LOW, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN FURTHER. +45 MPH WIND GUST
PROBABILITIES SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES
AFTER 12 AM AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY 6 AM THURSDAY, SURFACE
WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY, BUT THEY WILL
LOOSE SUPPORT FROM THE LLJ AS IT COMPLETELY SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA
AND DISPERSES IN THE PROCESS.
RANGEL
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
STILL SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK WE CAN SEE ON THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS, LATEST 17Z OBS SHOW
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE FREEZING WITH VALUES INTO THE 40S AND EVEN
A FEW LOWER 50S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TOMORROW. DECENT H500 HEIGHT
FALLS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30-40 MPH AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 40S IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WHERE
COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE TO MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEPENING H500 TROUGH AXIS ON THE
EASTERN 2/3 CONUS, A SUBTLE PERTURBATION IN THE MEAN FLOW MAY
PRODUCE A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER OR SOME FLURRIES FOR FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. THESE SNOW CHANCES
(ABOUT A 20% CHANCE AT THIS TIME) ALSO COINCIDE WITH A SECOND COLD
FRONT TO ENTER THE REGION. SNOW CHANCES WONT BE LARGE SCALE
COVERAGE, BUT ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO FALL WITH ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS
EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS THEN RETURN THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR SATURDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE BEFORE RISING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE SUNDAY THOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE ENTER THE FIRST
FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NEW TAF PERIOD. THOUGH SHORT
RANGE FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE TONIGHT, THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. STRONG WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF TODAY AND WELL INTO THURSDAY. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STEADILY
VEER FROM SOUTHWEST TO DUE NORTH BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES TONIGHT
DUE TO THE PASSING COLD FRONT CREATING STRONG WINDS ALOFT. MAX
GUSTS TOMORROW SHOULD GENERALLY CAP OUT AROUND 35KT, HOWEVER,
ROUGE +40KT GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM TIME TO TIME. WIND
SPEEDS ARE LIKELY NOT TO BECOME LIGHT AGAIN UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...55
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