093
FXUS64 KAMA 290546
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1146 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
STRONG WINDS TONIGHT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME DAMAGING IN VERY
ISOLATED LOCATIONS ACROSS THE CWA. STRONG CROSS WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THOSE IN COMMUTE, AND LOOSE OBJECTS MAY BE DISPLACED.
THE SNOW POTENTIAL THIS FRIDAY NIGHT HAS VERY LOW POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS. ACCUMULATION HAS A LOW CHANCE OF OCCURRING.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 829 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
SYNOPSIS...
STRONG +45 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. SOME 50 MPH AND
EVEN 60 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN TIME FRAME FOR THESE
GUSTS WILL BE FROM 10 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM THURSDAY.
MESOSCALE...
A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS SETTING UP THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN ONCOMING SURFACE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO REINFORCE
THE LLJ AS IT TRANSITIONS EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRIMARY
CONCERN WITH THESE FEATURES IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL MIX COMPLETELY DOWN TO THE SURFACE. NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
CLEARLY SHOWS THE LLJ STRENGTHENING TOWARDS MIDNIGHT, AND 850 MB
WINDS DISPLAY +50KT WIND SPEEDS BEING ACHIEVED. THIS AFTERNOON'S
CAMS KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT, BUT WIND GUSTS ARE MOSTLY
UNDER PERFORMING. 18Z SKEW-T PROFILES SHOW 15-25 MPH WINDS AT THE
SURFACE, BUT JUST 500-1,000M ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE 45-50 MPH
WINDS, EVEN REACHING UP TO 65 MPH IN SOME INSTANCES. THESE HEIGHTS
ARE ALSO WHERE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSION IS EXPECTED, BUT THE
LLJ'S INFLUENCE MAY HELP THESE STRONGER WINDS BREAK THROUGH THE
INVERSION AND MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. 12Z HREF GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THERE IS A UP TO A 70% CHANCE A 45 MPH WIND GUSTS CAN BE MET IN
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
LATEST 00Z DATA IS NOT AVAILABLE YET FOR ANALYSIS; HOWEVER, WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBSERVATIONS FOR SIGNS OF THESE GUSTS
OCCURRING. WHILE THESE HIGH-END WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION, LOCALIZED AREAS ARE MORE LIKELY TO RECEIVE
IMPACTS. AS THE COLD FRONT MEETS THE SURFACE LOW, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO TIGHTEN FURTHER. +45 MPH WIND GUST
PROBABILITIES SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST COMBINED PANHANDLES
AFTER 12 AM AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BY 6 AM THURSDAY, SURFACE
WINDS WILL STILL BE STRONG AS WE HEAD INTO THE DAY, BUT THEY WILL
LOOSE SUPPORT FROM THE LLJ AS IT COMPLETELY SHIFTS INTO OKLAHOMA
AND DISPERSES IN THE PROCESS.
RANGEL
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
SEE THE UPDATE FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
ANOTHER RESURGENCE OF STRONG, NORTHERLY WIND SPEEDS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT. HOWEVER, WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS POTENTIALLY
STRONG AS THEY COULD BE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED TONIGHT PERIOD. STILL,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW, TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN
THE 50'S, WITH SOME 40'S EXPECTED IN OUR EASTERN ZONES. CLEAR SKIES
WILL AMPLIFY DAYTIME HEATING AND TONIGHT'S LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE DUE TO THE STRONG OVERNIGHT
WINDS. BY THE EVENING, WIND SPEEDS WILL FINALLY DECREASE AN BECOME
LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FRIDAY, DAY TIME HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED TO MARGINALLY INCREASE, WITH
50'S BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN. OUR NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS WILL ONLY BE BREEZY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. CURRENTLY THE NORTHEAST
COMBINED PANHANDLES ARE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR SNOWFALL, OR
AT LEAST SNOW FLURRIES. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (<15%) THAT SNOW COULD
EFFECT MORE AREAS FURTHER SOUTH IN OR CWA, BUT MODELS ARE NOT
FORECASTING QPF FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. THEREFORE, SNOW FLURRIES ARE
THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME FOR MOST OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
ANY POTENTIAL SNOWFALL WOULD HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED BEFORE 6 AM
SATURDAY. THE CURRENT PROBABILITIES FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ARE
VERY LOW FOR THE DAY TIME ON SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE
ALREADY PAST BY THIS POINT AS WELL, AND WINDS WILL REVERT BACK TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW BY THE AFTERNOON. YESTERDAY'S 12Z AND 18Z MODEL DATA
SHOW MORE OF A WESTERN INFLUENCE FROM UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS
ALLOWS HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER ACROSS THE AREA THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30'S TO LOWER 40'S
ARE EXPECTED, BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES SHOULD BE
BOUND TO THE 30'S.
SUNDAY ONWARD, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE QUICKLY REDEVELOPS OVER THE
REGION. YET, WE WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL CHANGES
AS THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSETTLED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO
THE 50'S AND SOME 60'S ON SUNDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
LINGER THROUGH THE NEW WEEK BEFORE OUR NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY POPS HAVE DECREASED OR
REMAINED STAGNATE ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MOISTURE AXIS AND PRECIPITATION TYPE.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL TAF SITES DUE TO
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN WINDS GUSTS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
GUSTS UP TO 40KTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND WE HAVE MADE THE
PREVAILING AT KAMA AND KDHT. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STEADILY VEER
FROM SOUTHWEST TO DUE NORTH BY THE DAY TIME HOURS TODAY. STRONG
WINDS WILL CONTINUE WELL THROUGH THURSDAY AND FINALLY SUBSIDE BY
THE EVENING HOURS.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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