322
FXUS64 KAMA 301852
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1252 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
-FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR EASTERN
PANHANDLES WITH AREAS ON THE CAPROCK MIGHT GET PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
-COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A NICE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH MANY LOCATIONS WELL
INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. GOING PAST MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK, ENOUGH H850 (-)THETA-E ADVECTION RIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSING COLD FRONT AS SEEN BY A FEW OF THE
HI-RES VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWS ENOUGH LL MOISTURE FOR A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER TO DEVELOP, WITH NO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WHEN THIS COLD DENSE AIRMASS LIFTS ALONG THE CAPROCK,
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS FORM WHERE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST 18Z HI-RES VERTICAL
PROFILE SHOWS AMPLY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A MOISTURE H850-800
PROFILE WITHIN A -6C TO -8C CLOUD LAYER WHICH SUPPORTS SUPER
COOLED WATER DROPLET FORMATION. THESE MICROPHYSICS PROPERTIES
WITHIN THE OVERCAST SKIES MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S MAY
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE TO FORM. VIEWING
THE LATEST ICE ACCRETION PERCENTILE (10-50TH), JUST A TRACE OF
ICE IS A POTENTIAL. VALUES IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE MAY PRODUCE A
QUICK 0.01" OF ICE ACCRETION. THIS WINDOW SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR
ICE POTENTIAL STARTING AROUND 07-09Z THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z BEFORE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE GETS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE TX
PANHANDLE WITH JUST RESIDUAL FLURRIES THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BASED OFF OF NOTABLE CAA AND A RETURN TO SW
FLOW THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WITH DISSIPATING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST WILL CREATE A DICHOTOMY OF TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES TO
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
LARGE SCALE UL SUBSIDENCE WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL FLOW
TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP THE PANHANDLES REGION DRY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS WE GO THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. STARTING AROUND 05-7Z AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL IMPACT ALL TAF
SITES. A PROB30 FOR FLURRIES AT KAMA WAS ADDED BETWEEN 09Z AND
13Z. DURING THIS TIME, CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FG
AND/OR PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE, BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL START WESTERLY AND THEN
BACK TO NORTHERLY AROUND 05-07Z BEFORE VEERING BACK TO SOUTHERLY
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE 5-15 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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