814
FXUS64 KAMA 310000
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
600 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
-FLURRIES TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING FOR EASTERN
PANHANDLES WITH AREAS ON THE CAPROCK MIGHT GET PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE.
-COLD TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL REBOUND WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING AND IS
SWITCHING WINDS TO OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST. A MID TO LOW
LEVEL CLOUD DECK IS ALSO MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOCATIONS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ARE ALREADY UNDERNEATH IT. THE FRONT AND LOW
CLOUDS WILL ENGULF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FLURRIES WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE CENTRAL AND WEST, LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
(INCLUDING HEREFORD, AMARILLO, AND I-40) WILL HAVE THE HIGHER
POTENTIAL (40-60 PERCENT) FOR REDUCED VISIBILITY FROM FREEZING
DRIZZLE, FREEZING FOG, SNOW FLURRIES, OR A SOME COMBINATION OF THE
THREE. FOR THOSE OUT DRIVING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BE
AWARE THAT IF FREEZING DRIZZLE DOES OCCUR, A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE
MAY FORM ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS BRIDGES OR OVERPASSES.
MUSCHA
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
A NICE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH MANY LOCATIONS WELL
INTO THE 50S WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE. GOING PAST MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
FOR AREAS OFF THE CAPROCK, ENOUGH H850 (-)THETA-E ADVECTION RIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF THE PROGRESSING COLD FRONT AS SEEN BY A FEW OF THE
HI-RES VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWS ENOUGH LL MOISTURE FOR A FEW
FLURRIES AND/OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER TO DEVELOP, WITH NO
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER, WHEN THIS COLD DENSE AIRMASS LIFTS ALONG THE CAPROCK,
AREAS ON THE CAPROCK WILL HAVE LOW CLOUDS FORM WHERE PATCHY
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE. LATEST 18Z HI-RES VERTICAL
PROFILE SHOWS AMPLY DRY AIR ALOFT WITH A MOISTURE H850-800
PROFILE WITHIN A -6C TO -8C CLOUD LAYER WHICH SUPPORTS SUPER
COOLED WATER DROPLET FORMATION. THESE MICROPHYSICS PROPERTIES
WITHIN THE OVERCAST SKIES MOVING INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S MAY
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE TO FORM. VIEWING
THE LATEST ICE ACCRETION PERCENTILE (10-50TH), JUST A TRACE OF
ICE IS A POTENTIAL. VALUES IN THE 90TH PERCENTILE MAY PRODUCE A
QUICK 0.01" OF ICE ACCRETION. THIS WINDOW SHOULD BE LIMITED FOR
ICE POTENTIAL STARTING AROUND 07-09Z THROUGH ABOUT 12-14Z BEFORE
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILE GETS DISPLACED SOUTH OF THE TX
PANHANDLE WITH JUST RESIDUAL FLURRIES THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN. LOW CLOUDS THROUGHOUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW BASED OFF OF NOTABLE CAA AND A RETURN TO SW
FLOW THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY WITH DISSIPATING CLOUDS FROM WEST
TO EAST WILL CREATE A DICHOTOMY OF TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE TO MID 30S TO LOWER 40S IN THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES TO
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
LARGE SCALE UL SUBSIDENCE WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SINUSOIDAL FLOW
TRAVERSING EAST ACROSS THE SW CONUS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
KEEP THE PANHANDLES REGION DRY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST PERIOD AS WE GO THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF FEBRUARY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 554 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INITIALLY WITH THIS TAF CYCLE. MVFR
TO IFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS MOVING IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE LOW CEILINGS, SNOW
FLURRIES, FREEZING DRIZZLE, OR FREEZING FOG MAY OCCUR AT THE
TERMINALS. THE FREEZING FOG/DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IS HIGHER AT KAMA
AND KDHT, BUT HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY AT OR ABOVE MVFR FOR NOW GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY IN HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER OF THESE WEATHER TYPES
MAY BE. CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE DURING THIS TAF CYCLE AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
MUSCHA
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...05
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