078
FXUS64 KAMA 021054
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
- SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES, WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONTINUED TROUGHING OVER THE
EASTERN US WITH SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES, AND A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BREAK
DOWN AS BOTH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
WHICH WILL PROMOTE 10-20 MPH SUSTAINED SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MID-60S IN
THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES TO THE UPPER-60S TO LOW-70S IN THE
SOUTH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS.
THE 850MB JET WILL STRENGTHEN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH COULD MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 40-50 MPH RANGE IN THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE LATEST HREF IS GIVING A
20-40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 45 MPH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE
ABLE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER-50S TO LOW-60S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. A
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY RESULTING
IN A WEAK SOUTHWARD-MOVING SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE CONTENT IN
PLACE, AND SOME FORCING SHOULD ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT,
SOME OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODEL MEMBERS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. IF THERE IS
PRECIPITATION, MOST LIKELY ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES LATER
IN THE NIGHT IF PRECIPITATION IS STILL ONGOING AT THAT TIME.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1026 PM CST SUN FEB 1 2026
THE AXIS OF TUESDAY NIGHT'S TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA AND
WE'LL SEE RAPID HEIGHT RISES ALOFT IN THE AFTERNOON RESULTING IN
SUBSIDENCE. CLOUDS WILL CLEAR THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON BUT TEMPERATURES WILL GET STUCK IN THE LOW TO MID-50S.
IT'S PLAUSIBLE THAT CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND LONGER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER-40S TO LOW-50S, BUT
THAT'S SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED GOING FORWARD.
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FAVORED TO BUILD OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
AND ROCKIES WITH THE PANHANDLES BEING ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KICK OFF A STREAK OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES, LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER-60S.
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE WEEKEND AS OPERATIONAL MODELS AND
THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGEST AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN US/BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON EARLY NEXT WEEK.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 452 AM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW TO N THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A PUSH OF COLD AIR. GUSTY WINDS CAN THEN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH ALL THE WAY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...98
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