404
FXUS64 KAMA 021826
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1226 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES, WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE
IN THE NORTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE COMING WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. THEN, A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO COOL THE TEMPERATURES DOWN FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. FIRST, TOMORROW, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. THEN, WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
TO BE ANOTHER 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TOMORROW.
THIS EVENING A LEESIDE SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT OUT OVER THE AREA
WITH A COLD FRONT FILLING IN BEHIND. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH
AND PICK UP TO AROUND 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THERE WILL
BE A LOW (10-20% CHANCE) POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH IN THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP OFF FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVEN WEAKEN TO AROUND
10 MPH OR LESS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EARLY IN
THE AM ON WED, ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
SOME BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HELD BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S BEHIND THIS
FRONT. THIS TIME, SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAYBE BROUGHT IN BY THE
BASE OF AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH ALOFT. MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IS
NOT EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE IS LOOKING TO REMAIN DRY. HOWEVER,
SOME SPRINKLES THEN FLURRIES MAY STILL BE WITNESSED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES EARLY ON WED.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. FAIRLY QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MODELS HAVE A MID LEVEL
CUTOFF LOW FORMING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS SYSTEM MAY
OPEN INTO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND BRING SOME PRECIPITATION, TO AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE, LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING.
BOTH THE GFS AND EC ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS FOR DAY
7. FOR NOW THOUGH, THE NBM DOES NOT GIVE ANY POPS HIGHER THAN 10
PERCENT AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1201 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES AFTER 00Z TUE, BRINGING SLIGHTLY
BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE HOURS OF DARKNESS. AT
THIS TIME THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE WEAKER SIDE, MEANING
IT SHOULD NOT EVEN BE BRINGING A LOW CIG. SOME VERY SHORT LIVED
WINDS SHEAR MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL WIND SHIFTS. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...36
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