582
FXUS64 KAMA 031104
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
504 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
- VERY LOW CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES TUESDAY NIGHT.
- OTHER THAN WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
H500 TROUGHING MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL USHER
IN COOLER AIR ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALL NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
FROM MONDAY EVENING. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL NOT LAST AS WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.
THE COOLER AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO UPPER
50S. THE BASE OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL SIT OVER THE CWA
ON WEDNESDAY. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MAY MOVE
OVER AS LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. VERY LIGHT RAIN OR MORE LIKELY, SPRINKLES
MAY DEVELOP ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE POTENTIAL
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FLURRIES/SPRINKLES SEEMS TO BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT MUCH, IF ANY,
PRECIPITATION. CAA WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY LEADING TO HIGHS AROUND
10 DEGREES OR SO COOLER THAN TUESDAY. SOME AREAS MAY EVEN STAY IN
THE UPPER 40S FOR HIGHS, WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY
FEBRUARY. BREEZY TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. WINDS
DECREASE GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING.
MUSCHA
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST MON FEB 2 2026
LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THIS WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. FORECAST HIGHS
THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE 60S TO 70S
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND FREEZING. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, EXTENDING
FROM FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF AMERICA UP TO BRITISH
COLUMBIA, LOOKS TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. FURTHER WEST, A CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, IS FORECAST TO
COMBINE WITH A TROUGH MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS TO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. WITH ALL THESE SYSTEMS IN PLACE, ODDS ARE THE
MODELS WILL CONTINUE TO FLIP FLOP AND CHANGE THE POTENTIAL SOLUTIONS
AS THEY STRUGGLE TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY HOW ALL OF THESE SYSTEMS
INTERACT WHEN THEY ARE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO EACH OTHER. THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK BUT AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SOME
MOISTURE MAY MOVE ACROSS WEST TEXAS LEADING TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. JUST WHERE AND IF THAT WILL PAN OUT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT.
MUSCHA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 435 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE NE PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLES TONIGHT WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY
TERMINAL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY WEAK AND NORTHERLY THROUGH
TODAY. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WHICH
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO ALL TERMINALS THAT WILL LAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...98
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