687
FXUS64 KAMA 031905
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
105 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- VERY LOW CHANCES (10-20 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH A FEW
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES TONIGHT.
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY WITH SOME WIND GUSTS
APPROACHING 40 MPH.
- THURSDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
A LOVELY EARLY FEBRUARY DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES WITH CURRENT 18Z
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. FURTHER ALOFT, ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEPENING H500 TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 CONUS WILL HELP
USHER IN SOME NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW, COMPARED TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TODAY. ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT TOMORROW MORNING, A 10-20% CHANCE OF A VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER, WITH A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE
A TRACE, IF THAT, WITH AROUND A 5% CHANCE OF POSSIBLY A TENTH OF
AN INCH FOR THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES. SO YES, NOTHING TO GET TOO
HOPEFUL ABOUT UNFORTUNATELY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL
RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER TO MID 50S. WITH OUR REGION BEING ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE MAIN H500 TROUGH AXIS WITH HEIGHT RISES THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
CAN RULE OUT SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH
AT TIMES. WITH A COMBINATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS AND RH
VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20% IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR THE WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE, SOME AREAS COULD SEE BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSELY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
DRY AND WARM TEMPERATURES RETURN FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST
PERIOD. LATEST 03/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOWS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE WITH A NW-SE AXIS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS PROVIDING LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY DECAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY CONDITIONS
REMAINING. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL
RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS TO
START THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE STARTING AROUND
13-15Z TO AROUND 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...29
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