532
FXUS64 KAMA 041054
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
454 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
- BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 30-35 MPH. 10% CHANCE OR LESS FOR
GUSTS 40-45 MPH.
- THURSDAY THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 20 MPH OUT OF THE NORTH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE (10% OR LESS) FOR GUSTS TO REACH THE
40 TO 45 MPH RANGE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FA. PEAK WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 11 AM AND 3 PM TODAY.
THANKFULLY RHS IN THE WEST DO NOT DROP UNTIL WINDS START TO DROP
LIMITING A THREAT FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY. THANKS TO THE
COLD FRONT, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S. THIS TOO WILL HELP LIMIT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CALM THIS EVENING BUT RETURN TO THE WEST
AND PICK BACK UP TO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE BY SUNRISE TOMORROW
MORNING. THIS WILL ADD TO A WIND CHILL AROUND 5 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
THE MORNING LOWS WHICH ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S
MAINLY TOMORROW MORNING. NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT TODAY ARE EXPECTED
TO TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ALOFT WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN TO
THE WEST. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR THU
REBOUND BACK INTO THE 60S. SOME SORT OF SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD
TRANSITION WESTERLY WINDS TO THE NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON, MAINLY
FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN AREAS OF THE FA. WINDS MAY MAINTAIN THE 10
TO 15 MPH RANGE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE BECOMING CALM AND
RETURNING TO THE WEST GOING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DESPITE SOME
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY IT DOES NOT APPEAR
TO BE A COLD FRONT AS HIGHS SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 949 PM CST TUE FEB 3 2026
THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING TO REMAIN WARM, WITH WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO
SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. FIRST, AN H5 RIDGE IS PROGGED TO HAVE AN
AXIS RUNNING NW-SE FROM THE GREAT BASIN DOWN INTO SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS THU INTO FRI. BY SAT AFTERNOON THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO
SHIFT, CENTERING OVER TX WITH THE AXIS RUNNING NORTH-SOUTH.
UPSTREAM, A POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH IS PROGGED TO HAVE ITS
AXIS RUNNING FROM WYOMING DOWN INTO BAJA.
FOR THE MOST PART THE EXTENDED PERIOD IS LOOKING DRY UNTIL ABOUT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 30S TO 40S. THE AFOREMENTIONED H5 TROUGH IS
PROGGED TO START MOVING EAST, EVENTUALLY INTO WEST TO CENTRAL TX.
THE GFS WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE PROJECTED PATH OF THIS SYSTEM SOME RAIN
SHOWERS MAY SNEAK INTO THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE. EVEN SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE TRACK A BIT NORTHERLY. BECAUSE OF THIS
EVEN THE NBM IS GIVING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER MUCH OF THE FA
GOING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 AM CST WED FEB 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS AND ACROSS THE PANHANDLES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. IT WILL BE WINDY AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS. THE WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...36
LONG TERM....36
AVIATION...98
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