193
FXUS64 KAMA 060532
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1132 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
- VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES ON SATURDAY
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
A TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN US AND JUST OFF THE WEST
COAST WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AS A TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US. THE COMBINATION OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE AND WARMING 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE
HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE UPPER-60S TO MID-70S. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE IN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND STALL OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND
WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, A LEE
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO THROUGHOUT SATURDAY. WE WILL SEE WINDS TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
AND BECOME BREEZY, USHERING IN DRY AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES AND
MOVING THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY EAST. AS USUAL, THERE IS
DISAGREEMENT REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE, BUT IT
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PANHANDLES BY THE MID-AFTERNOON.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES WHERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND 15-20% RH
VALUES WILL BE COMBINED WITH WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FAVORED TO STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO TO START SUNDAY WITH RIDGING OVER
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL US. SUNDAY IS LOOKING TO BE ONE OF THOSE RARE
FEBRUARY DAYS IN THE PANHANDLES WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
UPPER-60S TO MID-70S BUT THE WIND IS BELOW 10 MPH.
THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
FURTHER ADVECTING WARMER AIR INTO THE PANHANDLES. MONDAY IS LOOKING
LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS
THE AREA. PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER ON MONDAY, AND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PUSHES EAST, WE COULD SEE A PERTURBATION CLIP THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT.
A COLD FRONT IS FAVORED TO MOVE IN ON TUESDAY. THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
AMONG OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS REGARDING HOW POTENT THE
AIRMASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LATEST NBM HAS HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-50S IN THE NORTHWEST TO LOW-70S IN THE SOUTHEAST, BUT THERE
ARE CERTAINLY SOME SOLUTIONS THAT KEEP HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOW-60S
ACROSS THE AREA.
A TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE WESTERN US ON WEDNESDAY, AMPLIFYING A
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARMER THAN
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU FEB 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY, THEN
EASTERLY, THEN SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH FRIDAY WHILE REMAINING AT 10
KTS OR LESS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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