275
FXUS64 KAMA 051743
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY, AND AGAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES ON
FRIDAY.
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS, BUT A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A TROUGH IN THE
MIDWEST WITH ANOTHER TROUGH IN THE WESTERN US WHICH IS DIPPING
SOUTHWARD. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A STALLED SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN TEXAS AND INTO CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
A RESERVOIR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING POOLED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RETREAT NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. WITH IT, EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS
AND EVEN SOME FOG ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES. SOME OF THIS FOG MAY BE DENSE.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA AS DEW POINTS IN THE 50S ADVECT INTO THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES. AS THIS HAPPENS, THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
WILL EJECT OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS, QUICKLY TAKING A
NEGATIVE TILT. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN SOUTHEASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHICH WILL CAUSE WARM AND DRY AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WHILE INTENSIFYING WARM/MOIST
AIR ADVECTION IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLES AND THE WARM/BREEZY/DRY
CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. THIS LEAVES US WITH TWO
WEATHER HAZARDS TO WATCH FOR THURSDAY:
FIRE WEATHER: ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEST OF A DRYLINE. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THERE ARE SOLUTIONS
BRINGING THESE CONDITIONS FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL COMBINED
PANHANDLES. CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO
STAY WEST OF A LINE FROM AMARILLO TO GUYMON, WITH CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES
WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST AND HUMIDITY WILL BE LOWEST.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS: FORECAST SOUNDINGS EAST OF THE DRYLINE
THURSDAY MORNING SHOW A SATURATED LAYER FROM THE SURFACE, INDICATING
THICK STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY FOG, TO 850MB TO 800MB WITH AN EML
ABOVE IT. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE MORNING BEFORE THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT THE LOW CLOUDS COULD
BEGIN TO BREAK UP TO SOME DEGREE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE FORCING
IN THE FORM 500MB & 700MB PVA AND A SHARPENING DRYLINE ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN PLACE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IF THE LOW CLOUDS CAN BREAK UP
ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALLOW DESTABILIZATION, WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE AND PUSH EAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 J/KG TO 1500 J/KG
WITH A VEERED WIND PROFILE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 40-50
KTS; THESE ARE CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP. OWING
TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT, FAVORABLE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS (2.75" DIAMETER) WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
SUPERCELLS. THERE ARE HINTS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH BACKED
SURFACE WINDS AND ENHANCED MOISTURE COULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE, SHOULD IT
COME TO FRUITION, COULD ENHANCE THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD A
SUPERCELL INTERACT WITH IT.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, THAT SCENARIO IS STILL VERY MUCH UP IN THE AIR.
IF CLOUDS PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE UNABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID-60S TO LOW-70S, ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL
BE POSSIBLE BUT THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WOULD BE LESS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE
THE DRYLINE PUSH WELL OFF TO THE EAST WITH BREEZY, WARM, AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WHERE WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 50-55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE
FOR WIND GUSTS TO REACH UP TO 60 MPH. THIS WILL CREATE ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. HOWEVER, THE
SPATIAL EXTENT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS ON THURSDAY.
THUS, ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ONCE THAT
BECOMES CLEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY
EVENING WITH SOME BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED FOR A PERIOD BEHIND THE
FRONT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH REGARD TO THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CREATE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN US, EVENTUALLY
CREATING A CLOSED LOW OR CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. A
RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE PLAINS AND WE WILL SEE
TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WHEN HIGHS WILL BE
IN THE UPPER-70S TO MID-80S.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK FOR RAIN
CHANCES TO RETURN AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN IS VERY LOW AT THIS
TIME.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE CONTINUED TO DISSIPATE GOING INTO THE 18Z
PERIOD. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BECOME AND REMAIN VFR FROM HERE ON
OUT. BREEZY AND GUSTY WINDS MAY DIVIDED BY A DRYLINE WILL SPLIT
THE AREA. KDHT SHOULD REMAIN WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WEST OF THIS
SURFACE BOUNDARY, WHILE KAMA AND KGUY REMAIN IN QUESTION. KAMA AND
KGUY WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEPENDING
ON WHERE THIS DRYLINE STALLS OUT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR KAMA GOING INTO THE 22Z TO 03Z
TIME FRAME. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND STAY EAST OF KAMA AT THIS TIME.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED MAR 4 2026
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES ON THURSDAY DUE TO BREEZY, DRY, AND WARM
CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST
AND RH WILL BE LOWEST.
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED ACROSS
THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY DUE TO BREEZY, DRY,
AND WARM CONDITIONS. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH
WILL BE FAVORED WITH AROUND A 10% CHANCE FOR A WIND GUST UP TO 60
MPH. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, CAUSING THE WINDS TO SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE BREEZY FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND SHIFT AND BREEZY
POST-FRONTAL WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR WILDFIRE
SPREAD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ001>003-
006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-019-020.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...03
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