058
FXUS64 KAMA 060508
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1108 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN THE CENTRAL TO
EASTERN PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ALL HAZARDS, TO
INCLUDE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES WILL HAVE TO
BE WATCHED FOR WITH ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXIST FOR THE COMBINED PANHANDLES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
AMPLE MOISTURE AND SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES TODAY.
HOWEVER, THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS REMAINS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT AS A QUASI-WARM
MOVES TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES FROM THE SOUTH. A LEESIDE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A DECENT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND GIVE THE PANHANDLES SOME BREEZY WINDS, BUT WILL ALSO
HELP DEVELOP A DRY LINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE FA. AREAS TO THE EAST OF THIS DRYLINE HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AREAS TO
THE WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO TIGHTEN UP
LATER IN THE DAY AND MAY BE THE MOST DEFINE AFTER DARK.
BASED ON AN 18Z BALLOON SOUNDING THERE IS A CAP CURRENTLY OVER THE
AREA THANKS TO SOME MORNING FOG AS WELL AS DRY H7 TO H5 LAYER.
SOME BETTER H7 THETA-E ADVECTION IS CURRENTLY PROGGED LATER THIS
EVENING AND MAINLY FOR THE SOUTHWEST TX PANHANDLE. CLOUDS WILL
NEED TO CLEAR AND H7 MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NEEDED IN ORDER FOR
STORMS TO START FIRING. CONFIDENCE IN ANY STORMS FIRING BEFORE THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
AS MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE DRYLINE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
THIS AFTERNOON, MUCAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO RISE INTO THE 1000
TO 1500 J/KG RANGE, HIGHER IF YOU TRUST THE NAM AND ITS MOIST
BIAS. WHAT WILL MAKE THE STORMS UGLY TODAY IF THEY DO GET GOING
WILL BE THE STRONG SE SURFACE WINDS ON THE MOIST SIDE OF THE
DRYLINE. THIS WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE THE BULK SHEAR, BUT IT WILL
ADD TO THE LOW LEVEL HELICITY FOR THE TORNADO POTENTIAL. ONCE
STORMS GET GOING AND SPINNING, ALL HAZARDS WILL BE IN PLAY WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL UP TO 3" IN DIAMETER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TORNADOES, MAYBE EVEN SOME STRAIGHTLINE WINDS.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY BRINGING TODAYS WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE PANHANDLES TOMORROW. AS IT DOES SO, THE
DRYLINE WILL GET PUSHED EAST INTO OK AND BRING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS TO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SOME EASTERN
PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE MAY STILL RECEIVE SOME DECENT RAINFALL
THIS EVENING, AND MAY HOLD SOME HIGHER TDS INTO THE EASTERN
PANHANDLES. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BRING WEST WINDS AROUND 25 TO
MAYBE EVEN 30 MPH. H85 WINDS AROUND 40 TO 45 KTS WILL ADD THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. A FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE NORTH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO THE COMBINED PANHANDLES AFTER SUNSET TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THANKS TO A FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT, AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL START
OUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH NEAR AVERAGE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THEREAFTER WITH H5 HEIGHTS
RISING GOING INTO MON AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL CUTOFF LOW APPROACHING.
AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE CURRENTLY PROGGED TO GET INTO THE LOWER TO MID
80S ON MONDAY WITH H85 TEMPS PROGGED TO WARM TO 22 DEGREES C. THE
NEXT POTENTIAL WEATHER MAKER (AFOREMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW) WILL BE
MOVING IN MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE NBM INTRODUCES POPS STARTING MON
NIGHT AND GOING ALL THE WAY INTO TUE NIGHT. BEING A WAYS OUT, ANY
POTENTIAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GET CONFINED TO A 6 TO MAYBE
12 HOUR PERIOD IN THIS TIME FRAME, AND SHOULD SEE THE POPS SHRINK IN
TIME. DEPENDING ON THIS SYSTEM AND RAIN, TEMPERATURES COULD GET BACK
INTO THE LOWER 80S AGAIN FOR TUE. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FRONT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND IS PROGGED TO COME IN SOMETIME TUE
OR TUE NIGHT AND AT LEAST COOLER THE AFTERNOON HIGHS FOR WED DOWN
INTO THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT, SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES POSSIBLE,
BUT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER
SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THEN
NORTHERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1149 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
TONIGHT A DRYLINE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. TOMORROW THE
PANHANDLES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE DRY SIDE WITH ADDITIONAL
DRY AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THE SURFACE TROUGH BRINGING THE
DRY AIR WILL ALSO BRING WITH IT SOME BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS.
TOMORROW, WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH RH VALUES NEAR 10 PERCENT
OR LESS. RFTI VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 5 TO 7 RANGE,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ001>003-
006>008-011>013-016>018-317.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR TXZ004-005-009-010-014-015-019-020.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM CST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
FOR OKZ003.
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...52
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