288
FXUS64 KAMA 060553
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1153 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING;
EXPECTING A DRY NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE LIKELY
LARGELY STAY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES,
ALTHOUGH PERHAPS IT COULD BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
TO BEGIN FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KANSAS. WE WILL BEGIN
TO SEE A JET STREAK INTENSIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS THROUGHOUT THE DAY, AND WITH A FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK, THE SURFACE LOW WILL
STRENGTHEN AS IT PUSHES EAST-NORTHEAST. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND IT SHOULD EXIT THE CWA BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WE SHOULD SEE A COLD FRONT MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH
AT AROUND THE SAME TIME, BUT THE LATEST HINTS FROM CAMS SUGGEST THAT
THE FRONT WILL STALL, OR PERHAPS EVEN RETREAT, THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND THE DRYLINE WILL BE
DRY, BREEZY, AND WARM CONDITIONS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
NORTHERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A 20-50% CHANCE FOR
WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH. THERE IS AROUND A 10-20% CHANCE FOR A
WIND GUST UP TO 60 MPH IN THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL BRING ABOUT A WIND SHIFT FROM
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT WILL STILL BE MORE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH
THE NIGHT.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME NUANCES WITH THE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER FOR FRIDAY. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THAT, PLEASE SEE THE
"FIRE WEATHER" SECTION BELOW.
WINDS WILL STAY A LITTLE MORE ON THE BREEZY SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE 50S TO LOW-60S ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
BY SUNDAY, OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT
THERE WILL BE A CLOSED OR CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AS THE
PACIFIC JET PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL BE
FAIRLY STAGNANT INTO MONDAY, RESULTING IN A QUICK WARMING TREND AS
HIGHS VENTURE INTO THE 70S ON SUNDAY AND WIDESPREAD 80S ON MONDAY.
THE TROUGH IS FAVORED TO BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD TUESDAY AND BEYOND,
AND THERE ARE SOME HINTS THAT PACIFIC AND GULF MOISTURE COULD RETURN
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
REGARDING THAT POTENTIAL. OTHERWISE, WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TO 10-15 KTS TONIGHT, SLIGHTLY HIGHER AT TIMES POSSIBLE,
BUT WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER
SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS AND TURN WINDS NORTHWESTERLY THEN
NORTHERLY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
A DRYLINE WILL BE SET UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PANHANDLES
TONIGHT, AND IT MAY SLIGHTLY SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT. POOR RH RECOVERY
(25-50%) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE WESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES. THE DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND SHOULD CLEAR THE PANHANDLES BY THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS,
USHERING IN DRY, BREEZY, AND WARM CONDITIONS. THIS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AREA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE FAVORED. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
20-50% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH. IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR GUSTS TO REACH UP
TO 60 MPH.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME NUANCES TO THIS FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST. THE WINDWARD SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED
IN THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES WHICH
TYPICALLY ENHANCES CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, WE ARE
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERY OVERNIGHT EAST OF THE DRYLINE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO INCLUDE THAT EXACT SAME AREA AND THE CRITICALLY DRY AIR
MAY NOT REACH THIS AREA UNTIL THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW RECEPTIVE THE FUELS
WILL BE IN THE AREA GIVEN THE EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERY THAT
OCCURRED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT. THIS
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE NORTH IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DECENT RH RECOVERY, BUT THE WINDS MAY BE
SLIGHTLY ON THE BREEZY SIDE STILL.
EXPECTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHER-END CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.
VANDEN BOSCH
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR TXZ001>004-
006>009-011>014-016>019-317.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CST FRIDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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