493
FXUS64 KAMA 062327
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
527 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES.
- RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE A LOW TO MODERATE CHANCE OF
RETURNING LATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM IS PASSING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. A PORTION OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO SEPARATE FROM THE REST OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM AND DIG TO THE
SOUTHWEST. IN DOING SO IT WILL BECOME ITS OWN CLOSED LOW WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK. AS FOR
THE PORTION OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT IS IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS IT IS CAUSING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSE OF THE GUST SOUTHWEST WINDS
THAT WILL BLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THIS TIME WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN
THE 20S TO 30S MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY IN THE 40S MPH RANGE
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS REACHING THE LOWERS 50S MPH RANGE.
THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE STRONGER IN THE NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
AND A LITTLE WEAKER TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLES. THESE WINDS
ARE ACTIVELY PUSHING OUT THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER
SYSTEM AND REPLACING IT WITH FAR DRIER AIR FROM NEW MEXICO. THIS
WILL CAUSE THE RH TO DROP DOWN TO THE LOWER TEENS TO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE PANHANDLES. SUCH DRY CONDITIONS
COUPLED WITH THE WINDS IS CAUSING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES. AS SUCH THERE IS BOTH A
RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE PANHANDLES FOR THE ONGOING FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES FOR THE WINDY CONDITIONS. IT IS HIGHLY ADVISED TO AVOID
ANY ACTIVITY THAT CAN PRODUCE SPARKS OR FLAMES AS THIS CAN LEAD TO
WILDFIRES THAT CAN DESTROY YOUR COMMUNITY. STILL NOT ALL NEWS IS BAD
AS EARLIER THIS MORNING THE WIDESPREAD MOISTURE OF THE WEATHER
SYSTEM PRODUCED COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF DEW THAT WILL HELP DELAY THE
ONSET OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS EVENING THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PASS IN A NORTH TO
SOUTH FASHION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS WILL BRING A SHARP SHIFT
IN THE WINDS FROM SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT. EVEN AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THE WINDS
WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME JUST AT WEAKER
SPEEDS COMPARED TO OUR AFTERNOON WINDS. THE WIND SHIFT CAN HAVE THE
DETRIMENTAL IMPACT OF CAUSING ANY ONGOING WILDFIRES TO SHIFT RAPIDLY
THE DIRECTION OF WHERE THEY AREA SPREADING. HOWEVER RELIEF WILL COME
FAST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AS MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN PUSHES BACK ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES LEADING TO AN END OF THE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THIS IS MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO IT IS VERY UNLIKELY TO LEAD TO
ANY CLOUD COVER AND NO SHOT AT ALL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE WINDS
WILL FINALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LATE SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE WEATHER SYSTEMS DEPARTS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS WILL LEAVE THE
REST OF SATURDAY WITH CALM AND COOL WEATHER ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
STILL SOME PATCHY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN PERSIST AS
OVERALL THE PANHANDLES WILL BE DRY FOR SATURDAY.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SUNDAY THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
WILL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING PROGRESSIVE AGAIN MOVING SLOWLY
EASTWARD. INITIALLY THE IMPACTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED TO
CAUSING BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
A GREATER IMPACT TO THE PANHANDLES BY LATE MONDAY WHEN IT FINALLY
MOVES IN SOME MOISTURE. THIS MOISTURE WILL MOST LIKELY STAY CONFINED
TO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE FOR MONDAY TO EARLY
TUESDAY. AS THE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED IN SCOPE MOST OF THE
PANHANDLES WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY.
THESE DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH BREEZY DAYTIME WINDS HAS A HIGH
CHANCE OF CAUSING ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES. AS THE
WEATHER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN TX THE
MOISTURE HAS A MODERATE CHANCE OF SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PANHANDLES AND A LOW CHANCE FOR THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.
STILL THE TRAJECTORY OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
THE PANHANDLES SO EXACTLY HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS MOVED IN REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST THE MOISTURE AMOUNTS HAS A LOW
TO MODERATE CHANCE OF CAUSING RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
PANHANDLES. THE CHANCES WILL BE HIGHER FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES
AND DECREASES TO THE WEST WHICH LINES UP WITH WHERE THE MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT. AFTER THIS SYSTEM MOVES TO THE EAST A MORE
NEUTRAL TO HIGHER PRESSURE WEATHER PATTERN IS MOST LIKELY TO SETTLE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD BRING DRIER AND
WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE PANHANDLES FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
MVFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT DHT, COULD REDUCE TO IFR DUE TO
BLOWING DUST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS, BUT VARIABILITY IN VIS
IS HIGH. WINDS WILL DECREASE CONSISTENTLY INTO THE NIGHT AND
MORNING ON SATURDAY, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM WSW TO N OVERNIGHT.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>003-006-007-
011-016.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001-002.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...98
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...23
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