227
FXUS64 KAMA 070532
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1132 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS PRESENT FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE
SOUTHWESTERN US AT THIS TIME. A SURFACE LOW IN KANSAS, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK IN THE MIDWEST, IS
PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING THROUGH THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING WHICH WILL
USHER IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME BREEZY WINDS WHICH WILL LAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLES AND OFF TO THE
EAST ON SATURDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. EXPECTING HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S TO LOW-60S ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. A PORTION OF THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL
PROGRESSIVELY GET CUT OFF FROM THE NORTHERN JET STREAM THROUGHOUT
SATURDAY AND WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS WILL BEGIN TO DRAW WARMER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO
THE PANHANDLES AND SET THE STAGE FOR A WARMING TREND TO BEGIN ON
SUNDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE 70S. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND CAUSE SOME BREEZY AND VERY
DRY CONDITIONS, BRINGING ELEVATED TO POTENTIALLY LOW-END CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
THE WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY; A
CLOSED/CUT-OFF TROUGH WILL REMAIN PRESENT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE A QUASI-ZONAL JET STREAM ROARS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 80S ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS IN NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO ONCE AGAIN. EXPECTING ELEVATED TO
POTENTIALLY LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
AS WE SEE BREEZY AND VERY DRY WEATHER CONTINUE. ADDITIONALLY, THERE
IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
90 DEGREES IN THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES, ALONG THE CANADIAN
RIVER VALLEY, AND PALO DURO CANYON.
THE TROUGH IS FAVORED TO START MOVING NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH IT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC AND GULF
TO ADVECT INTO THE PANHANDLES. SOME SUBTLE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS TROUGH MAY ALSO WORK UP INTO THE AREA WHICH COULD BE THE
CATALYST FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THAT SAID, THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST AS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
VARIES ON HOW QUICK THE TROUGH MOVES AND HOW QUICK MOISTURE RETURNS
INTO THE AREA. THIS ALSO LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR TUESDAY SINCE ANY POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
LAST INTO TUESDAY COULD LEAD TO COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE
OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES ARE AROUND 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLES.
DEPENDING ON THE TRACK, SPEED/TIMING, AND EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH
(CLOSED VS. OPEN WAVE), SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. OVERALL, RAIN CHANCES AND
AMOUNTS LARGELY FAVOR THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE, AND BARRING
UNFORESEEN BIG CHANGES IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN, IT SHOULD
REMAIN THAT WAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AND EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BE BREEZY.
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE PANHANDLES ON WEDNESDAY
AND WE'LL SEE HEIGHTS ALOFT RISE AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN US. WE'LL SEE TEMPERATURES WARM QUICKLY FROM THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE THEY
TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...52
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