821
FXUS64 KAMA 072329
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
529 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COMBINED PANHANDLES.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE DECREASING WINDS THE REST OF TODAY IN THE
WAKE OF THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING AROUND OR JUST BELOW THE FREEZING MARK ACROSS THE AREA.
TOMORROW HOLDS IN STORE ANOTHER DAY OF FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL, AS
EVEN DRIER AIR AND BREEZIER WINDS LOOK TO INFILTRATE THE FORECAST
AREA. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE LONE
STAR STATE WILL BE SITUATED BENEATH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, WELL
AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW CHURNING OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA. THIS WILL
HELP GENERATE A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ATOP THE
PANHANDLES, PRODUCING 15-25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
35 MPH. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS, THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE FOR ROGUE GUSTS >40 MPH TO BLEED DOWN TO THE SURFACE,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE. STRONG
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR TO THE REGION WILL TAKE PLACE AS A RESULT,
WITH SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES LOOKING LIKELY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE FOCUSED ON AREAS OF HIGHEST WINDS IN OUR WEST-
NORTHWEST COUNTIES, WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER LIKELY ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STAY BREEZY WITH MILD LOWS IN THE 40S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
HARREL
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED BAJA LOW SLOWLY SAUNTERS EASTWARD MONDAY,
ANOTHER DRY AND BREEZY DAY IS FORECAST, WITH POTENTIAL FOR RECORD
HIGHS IN THE 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE
COMPARABLE TO SUNDAY, WITH WESTERLY WINDS FAVORED TO BE JUST A TOUCH
LIGHTER (15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH). ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
MODELS SHOW THE LOW FINALLY MAKING GREATER EASTWARD PROGRESSION
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
LEADING THE CHARGE. THIS PATTERN WILL PULL IMPROVED MID-LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE TO THE REGION, ALONG WITH HIGHER SFC DEW POINTS TO
AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES, POSSIBLY EVEN
FURTHER NORTHWEST. AS ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES, SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY (20-40%
POPS). DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE LOW, A DRY SLOT
WOULD BE FAVORED TO INTRUDE UPON THE CWA LATER IN THE DAY,
CONFINING THE MAJORITY OF ANY AFTERNOON-EVENING STORM CHANCES TO
THE FAR EASTERN PANHANDLES AT BEST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAN'T
BE RULED OUT, BUT EASTWARD TRENDS AMONGST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVOR
THIS THREAT TO REMAIN MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
PRECIP CHANCES GREATLY DECLINE AS THE SYSTEM EXITS, BUT SOME MEDIUM-
LONG RANGE MODELS HINT AT FAINT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BEHIND A COLD
FRONT ARRIVING TUE NIGHT. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WITH THIS FRONT WILL
BRING QUITE THE NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN INTO WEDNESDAY, COOLING HIGHS
TO WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S. WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THE REST OF THE WEEK WOULD PROMOTE A WARMING
TREND TILL THE WEEKEND, WITH ANOTHER BREEZY DAY LIKELY THURSDAY.
SOME OF THESE DAYS MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.
HARREL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE 0Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT, WITH WIND SPEEDS
INCREASING IN THE MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>004-
006>009-011>013-016-017.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...23
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