484
FXUS64 KAMA 080541
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1141 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COMBINED
PANHANDLES ON SUNDAY, AND THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE ON
MONDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING, POTENTIALLY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
EXPENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN INTO THE MIDWEST AND A
RETROGRADING CLOSED LOW JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.
THIS OVERALL LARGE-SCALE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STAGNANT THROUGH THIS SHORT-TERM PERIOD, AT LEAST FOR THE PURPOSES
OF THIS REGION, ALTHOUGH THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL PUSH OFF
TO THE EAST AND THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BECOME ZONAL BY SUNDAY
NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLES IS TRENDING TOWARD
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. A SURFACE LOW
WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING THIS MORNING IN NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO WHICH WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS.
EXPECTING THE STRONGEST WINDS TO BE LOCATED IN THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES AT 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.
THE SURFACE LOW COULD VENTURE SLIGHTLY INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
COMBINED PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD WEAKEN THE SURFACE WINDS,
PARTICULARLY FOR CIMARRON COUNTY. VERY DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN AS THIS
OCCURS, AND MINIMUM RH VALUES BETWEEN 5% TO 15% IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES WITH THE NORTHWESTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES SEEING THE
LOWER END OF THAT RANGE AND THE SOUTHEAST SEEING THE HIGHER END. DUE
TO THESE WARM AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS, EXPECTING WIDESPREAD ELEVATED
TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND RELATIVELY BREEZY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERY.
THE CONTINUOUS SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL DRAW IN 850MB
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS POINT IN
MARCH WHICH WILL LEAD TO AN EVEN WARMER DAY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
EXPECTING BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES, THOUGH
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO SUNDAY. ONCE AGAIN,
EXPECTING VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES
RANGING FROM AROUND 5% TO AROUND 15%. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER DAY
OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, BUT THIS TIME MORE
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. THE BREEZY
DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED ANOMALOUSLY WARM 850MB TEMPERATURES, WILL LEAD TO
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE 80S ACROSS THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES. THERE'S EVEN A 10-30% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO REACH OR
SLIGHTLY EXCEED 90 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
PALO DURO CANYON.
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE SOUTHWESTERN US MONDAY NIGHT AND WE WILL SEE SOME MOISTURE AND
CLOUDS BEGIN TO MOVE IN TO THE PANHANDLES. THERE WILL EVEN BE A
CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY MORNING.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE PRESENT ON TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD WESTERN TEXAS. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM WHICH IS LEADING TO VASTS UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. NONETHELESS, IT DOES LOOK LIKE THERE'LL BE
DECENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE GULF, DECENT 700MB THETA-E
ADVECTION FROM THE PACIFIC, AND PLENTIFUL PVA TO CAUSE LIFT. FOR
THOSE REASONS THERE IS A GOOD REASON TO BELIEVE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER,
THE COVERAGE AND LONGEVITY OF THIS ACTIVITY IS IN QUESTION. IF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE THEN THIS COULD BE A QUICK-
HITTING SYSTEM WITH A POTENTIAL MORNING ROUND AND AN AFTERNOON
ROUND. IF IT'S MORE OF A CLOSED TROUGH THEN WE COULD SEE RAIN
CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT TRACKS OFF TO OUR EAST.
HOWEVER, AS IT STANDS NOW, THE OPEN WAVE IS THE MORE FAVORED
SOLUTION.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE'S FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE FOR WIND
GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECTING A COOLER
WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-50S TO MID-
60S.
THE WEATHER PATTERN REGIME WILL CHANGE SLIGHTLY AS WE GO FROM
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE END OF THIS LONG-TERM PERIOD. THE WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE'LL EVENTUALLY SEE A
RIDGE BUILD JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WITH GENERAL TROUGHINESS OVER
CANADA AND THE NORTHERN US. THIS PATTERN WILL RETURN US TO WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S) FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1116 PM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. DURING THE
LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RAMP UP WITH
GUSTS REACHING GREATER THAN 30 KTS AT BOTH DHT AND AMA, BEFORE
WINDING DOWN AS WE APPROACH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR TXZ001>004-
006>009-011>013-016-017.
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ001-002.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...23
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