630
FXUS64 KAMA 091141
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
641 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE COMBINED PANHANDLES ON MONDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MONDAY.
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY NIGHT. A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES WITH THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
A CUT-OFF TROUGH IS SPINNING JUST WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA TONIGHT WITH A QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN
KANSAS TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP KEEP THE WINDS ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
SLIGHTLY ON THE BREEZY SIDE. VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO GET
BROUGHT INTO THE PANHANDLES OVERNIGHT; EXPECTING RH VALUES TO ONLY
REACH INTO THE 30-40% RANGE WITH SOME AREAS NOT EVEN REACHING TO
30%.
A NEW SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO ON MONDAY
AND WE WILL SEE WINDS STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WON'T BE TOO IMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COMBINED
PANHANDLES, BUT IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
EXPECTING SUSTAINED WINDS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH,
PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH CRITICAL MOSTLY BEING CONFINED TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL. ALSO CURRENTLY FORECASTING SOME RECORD TYING OR BREAKING
TEMPERATURES AT AMARILLO (FORECAST 83 DEGREES, RECORD IS 83 DEGREES)
AND BORGER (FORECAST 86 DEGREES, RECORD IS 83 DEGREES). THERE IS
EVEN A 40-75% CHANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES
IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND PALO DURO CANYON.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE PANHANDLES. THERE IS A DECENT
SURGE OF 700MB POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION LATE MONDAY NIGHT, AND
WITH SOME FORCING MOVING IN AT AROUND THE SAME TIME, A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROGRESS QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA,
AND WE WILL SEE THE SUN BREAK OUT IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO LEADING TO SOME POTENTIALLY BREEZY
WINDS THROUGHOUT TUESDAY.
SOME MODELS, SUCH AS THE NAM PRODUCTS, OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND SOME OF
ITS ENSEMBLES, AND SOME GFS ENSEMBLES, KEEP 50-60 DEGREE DEW POINTS
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN COMBINED PANHANDLES AND A BIT
LESS IN THE CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES. SHOULD THIS INDEED HAPPEN,
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7.5 C/KM TO 8 C/KM WILL ASSIST
IN CREATING AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE. AS ONE SHOULD EXPECT
FOR THE COOL SEASON, SHEAR WILL NOT BE LACKING; EFFECTIVE SHEAR
VALUES BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WITH ENOUGH DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR ROTATING
UPDRAFTS. THEREFORE, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ABLE TO STICK AROUND IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PANHANDLES. OWING TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATES,
FAVORABLE SHEAR, DRY AIR ALOFT, AND RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WINDS,
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. IF THE
ABOVE SCENARIO PANS OUT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A SUPERCELL WOULD
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A HAILSTONE AROUND 2 INCHES OR GREATER.
WITH ALL THAT SAID, THIS IS AGAIN DEPENDENT UPON SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE AREA, AND OF COURSE, STORMS DEVELOPING AT ALL.
ALTHOUGH THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST SOME LIFT PROVIDED BY POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION, SOME MODELS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR 700MB
NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WHICH MAY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT VIA DRY
AIR ENTRAINMENT. THUS, STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES TO BE SORTED OUT.
ANY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO OCCUR WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
PANHANDLES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST TO BEGIN
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE PANHANDLES.
OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE STRONGLY SUGGESTING THAT BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT. SUSTAINED WINDS
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. THERE
IS A 20-40% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO EXCEED 50 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH STILL
REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER-50S TO UPPER-60S.
AS A SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST, SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF TO
OUR NORTHWEST. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID-70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN US INTO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL US FROM FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO 80S
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN MAYBE SOME 70S WILL WORK INTO THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN LOOK VERY MEAGER IN THIS LONG-TERM
PERIOD.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 KTS
FOR KDHT/KAMA AND 10-20 KTS FOR KGUY WITH FEW TO SCT HIGH CLOUDS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR TXZ001>019-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page