560
FXUS64 KAMA 092318
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
618 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY IN THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE DUE TO VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND STRONG WINDS. ELEVATED
TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAY THIS WEEK.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PANHANDLES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND POTENTIALLY GREATER ARE EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
WARM, DRY, AND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE PROPAGATION OF MULTIPLE SURFACE LOWS THESE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL PROMOTE STRONG TO BREEZY WINDS IN THE SE QUADRANT OF THE
FEATURE. THIS IS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO BE
THE TIGHTEST. SINCE THESE LOWS ARE FORMING OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND TRAVERSING NORTH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
THE GREATEST IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES, WHILE THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LIGHTER, MORE VARIABLE WINDS.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR MORE DETAILS, SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. WITH A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS
THE CWA PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES WILL EASILY CLIMB
INTO THE 80'S. RECORDS AT KAMA AND KBGD ARE STILL IN CONTENTION
FOR BEING BROKEN, BUT WE STILL HAVE NOT DONE IT AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING.
A SURGE OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER IN THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT. THE TIMING OF IT'S ARRIVAL HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK LATER
ACCORDING TO 12Z GUIDANCE, SO SHOWERS HAVE A LOWER CHANCE OF
OCCURRING THIS MORNING. STILL, SOME CAMS HINT AT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SPRINKLES BEFORE NOON, BUT THERE'S POOR CONFIDENCE IN
WHERE THEY WILL OCCUR GIVEN HOW ISOLATED THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE. POPS HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY BEEN REDUCED BELOW 15% UNTIL 1 PM.
BY THE AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO FORM ACROSS THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. TODAY'S 12Z
MODELS SHOW A FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW, WHICH
PROMOTES AN EASTWARD SHIFT FOR THE THETA-E MOISTURE AXIS. NOW,
THE TIME FRAME FOR MOISTURE TO STAY WITHIN OUR CWA IS MUCH MORE
LIMITED, LEADING TO DRIER FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR QPF. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, ALONGSIDE THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. WHILE AFTERNOON POPS ARE ALSO ON
THE DOWN TREND, THE POTENTIAL IS STILL PRESENT FOR A FEW STORMS
TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. GIVEN SUFFICIENT LAPSE RATES, MLCAPE, AND
OUTSTANDING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR, CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE. THE CAVEAT IS THAT THESE
MESOSCALE CONDITIONS ARE MORE PREVALENT THE FURTHER EAST YOU GO.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR ANY STORM
THAT BECOMES SEVERE IN OUR AREA.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
WEDNESDAY MORNING, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. 12Z MODEL RUNS SHOW THAT 850 MB WINDS AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS HAVE TAKEN A CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN MAGNITUDE BEHIND THE
FRONT. FORECAST WIND SPEEDS NOW FAVOR THE THE 12Z HRRR AND THE NBM
75TH PERCENTILE, WITH SUSTAINED RANGES BETWEEN 35-39 MPH AND GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH FOR SOME LOCATIONS. WIND RELATED PRODUCTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY DOWN THE LINE, AS SOME CAMS LIKE THE HRRR AND RAP
SUGGEST WIND GUSTS COULD REACH UP TO 60 MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK DOWN INTO THE 50'S AND 60'S FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. DESPITE
THE COOLER WEATHER, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT PURELY
DUE TO HOW STRONG THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE. STILL, MINIMUM RH
VALUES HAVE THE CHANCE TO DROP AS LOW AS 20%. THE ONLY ISSUE IS
THE TIMING FOR THE LOWEST RH VALUES DO NOT LINE UP WITH THE TIMING
FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS.
THURSDAY ONWARD, WE EXPECT TO WARM UP AND CONTINUE TO DRY OUT.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS A PREVALENT THREAT FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT OUR
NEXT COLD FRONT COULD ARRIVE AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE
STILL LOOKS TO REMAIN LIMITED AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN TONIGHT THEN BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW DURING
THE DAY. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 126 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
A RED FLAG WARNING IS STILL IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THROUGH 9 PM THIS EVENING. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAD TO
BE DECREASED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS, AS THE NBM WAS STILL TOO
HIGH WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES TODAY. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON, MINIMUM
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE VERIFYING ACROSS THE CWA, BUT WE STILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THEM DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, MINIMUM RH MAY BOTTOM OUT BELOW 5% FOR MANY
AREAS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. RFTI VALUES OF 7 ARE ALREADY BEING
ACHIEVED ACROSS THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE, WITH MANY MORE
LOCATIONS RANGING BETWEEN 4-6. PEAK WIND GUSTS SO FAR TODAY HAVE
REACHED UP TO 43 MPH, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR 35-40 MPH GUSTS
CONTINUE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL STEADILY
BE BACKING FROM W TO SW BY AROUND 7 PM.
TOMORROW, CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED;
HOWEVER, WE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME ELEVATED IF THE
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES. CURRENT RFTI VALUES ARE
PURELY RH DRIVEN, AS SURFACE WINDS ARE SIMPLY BREEZY RANGING BETWEEN
10-20 MPH ACROSS THE WHOLE FA.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ001>020-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...52
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