734
FXUS64 KAMA 101133
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
633 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST UP TO
60 MPH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, THERE IS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS THERE IS A DECENT SURGE OF 700MB
THETA-E AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE TO FIGHT OFF SOME DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN ALL, THAT CULMINATES
IN AROUND A 15% CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CLEAR LATER TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-
70S IN THE WEST TO UPPER-80S IN THE EAST. ADDITIONAL FORCING SHOULD
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRESENT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN, THOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES. IF THIS
DOES HAPPEN, MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 750-1250 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH AROUND 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A VEERING WIND
PROFILE. THIS SUGGESTS A SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, OWING TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND DAMAGING
WINDS, WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1250 J/KG.
ALL THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED. THERE ARE HINTS THAT A LAYER OF
DRY AIR AROUND 700MB WILL WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN, WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP OR STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ACTS AS AN INHIBITOR FOR SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE, THIS DRY AIR MAY NOT IMPACT THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES MUCH AND THUS WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OWING TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OF DCAPE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY DUE TO A STEEP POST-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 35 MPH, AND LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXPECTING 30-45 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES, AND 45-55 MPH GUSTS IN THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 60 MPH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
THE WEATHER SYSTEM THAT PRODUCES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY'S WEATHER
WILL MOVE OFF INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ON THURSDAY, AND WE'LL SEE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE PANHANDLES. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON RESULTING IN THE RETURN OF BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ANOMALOUSLY WARM LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
PANHANDLES ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. EXPECTING HIGHS TO REACH
INTO THE UPPER-70S TO LOW-80S ON FRIDAY AND MID TO UPPER-80S ON
SATURDAY. THE NBM GIVES A 30-60% CHANCE FOR HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED
90 DEGREES ON SATURDAY WITH A 60-90% CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE, PALO DURO CANYON, AND PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN
RIVER VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND BRING IN A QUICK DROP
IN TEMPERATURES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED BEHIND THIS
FRONT.
VANDEN BOSCH
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE 12Z TAF PERIOD AT ALL
TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AT 10-20
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. COULD SEE -TSRA CONDITIONS FOR
KGUY/KAMA BETWEEN 18Z AND 23Z, BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. ERRATIC WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER TAF SITE. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY PAST 00Z. FOR KGUY/KDHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHERLY AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION TOWARDS THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-25 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...29
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