251
FXUS64 KAMA 101813
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
113 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
- THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, MOSTLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT A WIND GUST UP TO
60 MPH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY, AND SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT MON MAR 9 2026
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A TROUGH OVER THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TRACKING SLOWLY EASTWARD. MEANWHILE, THERE IS
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN US. UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
CREEPING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS MOISTURE FROM THE
PACIFIC BEGINS TO MOVE IN.
THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TONIGHT AND CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WE COULD SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT AS THERE IS A DECENT SURGE OF 700MB
THETA-E AS WELL AS SOME SUBTLE PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH, THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE TO FIGHT OFF SOME DRY
AIR IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE. IN ALL, THAT CULMINATES
IN AROUND A 15% CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE TONIGHT.
WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS CLEAR LATER TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER-
70S IN THE WEST TO UPPER-80S IN THE EAST. ADDITIONAL FORCING SHOULD
ARRIVE IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRESENT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL SPLIT ON HOW
MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ABLE TO RETURN, THOUGH THE BETTER
CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL COMBINED PANHANDLES. IF THIS
DOES HAPPEN, MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 750-1250 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG WITH AROUND 45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH A VEERING WIND
PROFILE. THIS SUGGESTS A SUPERCELL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES WHICH WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL, OWING TO THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND DAMAGING
WINDS, WITH DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000-1250 J/KG.
ALL THAT SAID, THERE ARE SOME SERIOUS DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO BE SUSTAINED. THERE ARE HINTS THAT A LAYER OF
DRY AIR AROUND 700MB WILL WORK INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. IF THIS DOES HAPPEN, WE COULD SEE
THUNDERSTORMS STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP OR STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY
AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ACTS AS AN INHIBITOR FOR SUSTAINED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MEANWHILE, THIS DRY AIR MAY NOT IMPACT THE
WESTERN PANHANDLES MUCH AND THUS WE COULD SEE SOME HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OWING TO AROUND 1000
J/KG OF DCAPE.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS
WILL BECOME BREEZY DUE TO A STEEP POST-FRONTAL SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
SUSTAINED AT 25 TO 35 MPH, AND LOCALLY HIGHER POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. EXPECTING 30-45 MPH WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN PANHANDLES, AND 45-55 MPH GUSTS IN THE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THERE IS A 15-30% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS TO
EXCEED 60 MPH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS MEANS THAT AT LEAST A WIND ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
VANDEN BOSCH
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT SUNDAY, LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSISTENCY CONCERNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PLACE THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
IT'S WAKE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY INCLINE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. 70'S ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY, THEN INCREASING TO
THE UPPER 70'S AND 80'S BY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, SOME AREAS WILL
PREPARE TO SEE THE RETURN OF 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE
REST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80'S. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE ANALYZED ON A DAY-BY-DAY BASIS DUE TO THE GENERAL
DRYNESS OF THE PANHANDLES, YET NO NOTABLY STRONG SIGNALS OF WIND
OR RH ELEMENTS TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT CONSIDERATION THIS
FAR OUT.
A SHARP REDUCTION IN HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, AND THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. WE CAN ALSO
ANTICIPATE A RETURN TO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MANY LOCATIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BACK TO THE
20'S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. POPS WILL REMAIN ABSENT IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG MOISTURE SIGNAL FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KDHT AND KGUY IN THE PREVIOUS HOUR, BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM
MODEL UPDATES DO HINT AT THE NOTION OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ANY TAF SITE, AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY NOW THROUGH 00Z IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN DIRECTLY MOVE
OVER A TERMINAL.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 44 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAMA, BUT GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AT THE OTHER TWO SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NORTH ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO AFFECT ALL SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE
CONCERNING VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ004-005-
007>020-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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