735
FXUS64 KAMA 102006
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT IN THE EASTERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS BEING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 8 PM THIS
EVENING DUE TO DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS. ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY &
THURSDAY.
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM
FOR +50 MPH WINDS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE THETA-E MOISTURE GRADIENT IS CLEARLY BEING SHOWN BASED OFF
THE CURRENT CONVECTION AND THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE AS HIGH AS 56 DEGREES IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE. WHILE 50 DEGREE DEWPOINTS ARE RELATIVELY CONFINED TO
THOSE ZONES, 40'S AND 30'S ARE MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD. STORMS TODAY
WILL BE HIGH BASED WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THOUGH
MUCAPE PROFILES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE, ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NOT ONLY CONTINUE BUT BECOME SEVERE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AND STEEP
LAPSE RATES. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ORGANIZED.
AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION FURTHERS AND STORMS PROGRESS EAST,
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE A SHORT WINDOW TO BECOME STRONG OR
SEVERE BEFORE MOVING INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. CAMS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE BACK TO SHOWING SOME BETTER COVERAGE FROM STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WE STILL EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ISOLATED.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ELEVATED TODAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR RFTI VALUES TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR WESTERN
ZONES. STILL NO PLANS ON UPDATING THE CURRENT RFD AND FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE AROUND 8 PM TONIGHT.
LATER TONIGHT, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA AND
STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY IT'S ARRIVAL. 21Z
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR WIND GUSTS ABOVE 50 MPH HAVE INCREASE TO
80% OR MORE FOR SOME AREAS. SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO
GENERALLY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THESE STRONG WINDS MIXING DOWN TO
THE SURFACE TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR +60 MPH GUSTS IS STILL
LOW, BUT WE ARE SEEING MORE MODELS FAVOR THESE HIGHER END GUSTS.
THE HRRR IS STILL THE STRONGEST MEMBER IN THE HREF ENSEMBLE, BUT
IT STILL SEEMS TO BE AN OUTLIER DUE TO OTHER CAMS HAVING TROUBLE
MIXING DOWN THESE 50 KT WINDS FROM 500 M ABOVE THE SURFACE. FOR
NOW, WE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY THAT BEGINS TONIGHT AT 4AM AND
LINGERS THROUGH 4 PM WEDNESDAY. PEAK WINDS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR
BETWEEN 7 AM THROUGH 10 AM, BUT CHANCE FOR 50 MPH WINDS STILL
PREVAIL BEYOND THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH TOMORROW SHOULD CAP OUT IN
THE 50'S AND 60'S. DESPITE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, MINIMUM RH
VALUES SHOULD STILL RANGE IN THE MID TEENS AND 20'S ACROSS THE FA.
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE MISS-
MATCH BETWEEN THE TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS AND THE TIMING OF
THE LOWEST RH ARE PREVENTING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM
MANIFESTING.
RANGEL
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN RETURNS TO MORE ZONAL FLOW FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. BY NEXT SUNDAY, LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DISPLAY CONSISTENCY CONCERNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PLACE THE REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
IT'S WAKE.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL EXPERIENCE A STEADY INCLINE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. 70'S ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY, THEN INCREASING TO
THE UPPER 70'S AND 80'S BY FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY, SOME AREAS WILL
PREPARE TO SEE THE RETURN OF 90 DEGREE TEMPERATURES, WHILE THE
REST OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80'S. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL NEED TO BE ANALYZED ON A DAY-BY-DAY BASIS DUE TO THE GENERAL
DRYNESS OF THE PANHANDLES, YET NO NOTABLY STRONG SIGNALS OF WIND
OR RH ELEMENTS TO WARRANT FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT CONSIDERATION THIS
FAR OUT.
A SHARP REDUCTION IN HIGHS ARE ANTICIPATED AFTER THE COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY, AND THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES SHOULD LINGER
INTO MONDAY DUE TO THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVERAGE EXPECTED. WE CAN ALSO
ANTICIPATE A RETURN TO BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH MANY LOCATIONS FORECAST TO RETURN BACK TO THE
20'S FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WHILE. POPS WILL REMAIN ABSENT IN THE
EXTENDED DUE TO THE LACK OF A STRONG MOISTURE SIGNAL FROM MODEL
GUIDANCE.
RANGEL
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KDHT AND KGUY IN THE PREVIOUS HOUR, BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS DIRECTLY AT THIS TIME. SHORT TERM
MODEL UPDATES DO HINT AT THE NOTION OF INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT HIGH
FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER ANY TAF SITE, AMENDMENTS MAY BECOME
NECESSARY NOW THROUGH 00Z IF AN ISOLATED STORM CAN DIRECTLY MOVE
OVER A TERMINAL.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE THE INCREASING
WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS UP TO 44 KTS ARE POSSIBLE
AT KAMA, BUT GUSTS MAY BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER AT THE OTHER TWO SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NORTH ONCE THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. BLOWING DUST MAY ALSO AFFECT ALL SITES, BUT CONFIDENCE
CONCERNING VISIBILITY REDUCTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
RANGEL
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ004-005-
007>020-317.
OK...NONE.
SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....55
AVIATION...55
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