899
FXUS64 KAMA 111144
AFDAMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
644 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND A COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM FOR
+50 MPH WINDS IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.
- A RETURN OF WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO KEEP
ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE CLEAR PRESENT INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
AS OF THIS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT, LATEST RADAR AND OBSERVATION SITES
WHERE TRACKING THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF COLORADO AND KANSAS. WHILE THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO
TREND WITH A DECENT COOL OFF FOR THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY, THE
PRIMARY CONCERN HAS BEEN MORE FOCUSED ON THE WINDS. PRESENTLY
LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SEE HEAVY SUPPORT FROM 850MB JET THAT IS
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS IN THIS JET PEAKING AT
AROUND 50 TO 60KT. THIS WILL CORRELATED TO STRONG WINDS DOWN AT
THE SURFACE DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH AND GUST UPWARDS OF 55 MPH. THESE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
THANKS IN PART TO A 700MB FILLING IN FOR SUPPORT. WHAT HAS BEEN
REALLY CONCERNING HOWEVER, IS THAT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE
BEEN SEEING EFFICIENT BLEED DOWN OF THIS JET WHICH COULD RESULT IN
ROUGE GUSTS REACHING 60 MPH, ESPECIALLY AS THE FRONT PASSES
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME, THESE GUSTS LOOK TO BE VERY BRIEF WITH
ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES RETAINING ANY CHANCES
OF SEEING THEM BEYOND THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE. GIVEN THIS, IT
HAS BEEN DECIDED TO KEEP THE PANHANDLES UNDER A WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 4 PM. OTHERWISE, POTENTIAL IS PRESENT TO SEE POCKETS OF
BLOWING DUST THROUGH OUT THE DAY.
AS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE DAY, EXPECTED WINDS DO GIVE
POTENTIAL FOR CONCERNS TO BE HAD, BUT TIMING BETWEEN OUR LOWEST RH
VALUES AND THESE WINDS ARE A BIT SKEWED, WITH WINDS LOOKING TO
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. ADDED TO THIS, WILL BE TEMPERATURE
ONLY REACHING INTO 50 TO 60S FOR THE DAY, WHICH COULD BE MORE
BENEFICIAL IN QUELLING FIRE STARTS. GIVEN THIS COMBINATION, ONLY
ELEVATED TO VERY BRIEF LOW-END CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THESE CONCERN DO ESCALATE FOR THURSDAY AS MUCH
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THAT AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
MODEL AGREEMENT CONTINUES SEE A RIDGE BUILD IN OVER THE WESTERN
UNTIED STATES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK, WHICH WILL
LIKELY LEAVE THE PANHANDLES UNDER ANOTHER ROUND DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS. THIS WARMING PERIOD WILL EVENTUALLY SEE US REBOUNDING
FROM THE EXPECTED COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. OF
COURSE, THESE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO COME WITH FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WITH PRESENT GUIDANCE ALREADY SEEING POTENTIAL
FOR TEEN TO SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THESE
CONCERNS ONLY GROW FOR SUNDAY AS MODELS SEE A UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
BRUSH JUST TO OUR NORTH AND FORCE A FRONT AND SOME BREEZIER
CONDITIONS TO MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE FOR THE DAY. OTHERWISE,
THIS TREND LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MODELS SEE A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PUSH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAR 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXPECTION COULD BE SOME BLDU CONDITIONS AT TIMES THAT
COULD REDUCE VSBYS, BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
IN TAF AT THIS TIME, WITH AMD LIKELY IF CONDITIONS WORSEN. WINDS
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH 25-35 KTS WITH GUSTS OVER 50 KTS AT TIMES
THROUGH 20-22Z BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY DISSIPATE PAST 00Z TO THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10-20 KTS.
AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ001>005.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR TXZ006>020-
317.
OK...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR OKZ001>003.
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...29
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